In a conflict that lasts and seems to be bogged down, the European Union is further increasing the pressure on the Russian economy.
Two months after the start of the war in Ukraine, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, proposed this Wednesday a 6th set of sanctions which must be adopted by the European Council.
In addition to an embargo on Russian oil, the Commission proposes to exclude three new Russian banks from Swift, this financial system allowing banks to trade internationally.
Including Sberbank, the country's main network, which represents 37% of the Russian market.
Seven establishments were already excluded from it at the start of the crisis.
Not likely to stop the financing of the war
“It's as if you were preventing BNP Paribas from working!
Europe wants to hit harder and harder to limit and complicate the financing of the war by Putin, analyzes Michel Ruimy, economist and teacher at Sciences Po. The sanctions are going crescendo.
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But if the twenty-seven agree, the exclusion of Swift from the first bank in the country, spared until then, will not be likely to stop the financing of the war.
“The exclusion of Swift does not prevent Russia from continuing the war, but it disrupts its economy enormously, resumes Michel Ruimy.
Putin will have to find a workaround, as he did by demanding payment for oil and gas in rubles to keep his currency afloat.
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Transfers will be more complicated for its customers
For some experts, this decision comes a bit late.
“It's not quite the
nuclear weapon
as it was presented to us at the start of the war.
Sberbank should have been excluded much earlier for the repercussions to be greater, says Yamina Fourneyron, professor of economics at the University of Lorraine.
But Europe no doubt wanted to keep powerful restrictions still in hand to let the threat hang.
The exclusion of Sberbank will, on the other hand, make transfers complicated for customers of its subsidiaries in eight European countries, including Austria and Croatia.
Internationally, fund transfers to Russia will also be more complex.
“For Western companies, it will be necessary to make a transfer to another bank, still in the Swift network, which itself will undoubtedly transfer the funds to Sberbank, thanks to the Russian or Chinese system, explains Yamina Fourneyron.
It will be longer.
Excluding Sberbank is tantamount to holding back Russia.
“The European Union thus wishes to slow down Vladimir Putin, so that he does not manage to achieve his objectives in time, analyzes Michel Ruimy.
He won't be able to achieve everything he wants, so his hold will diminish.
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