The shark against the governor: Putin invaded Ukraine and our pension will be harmed?

Following the gloomy forecast issued by the World Bank yesterday, according to which the world economy is in danger, we went to the "shark" Amir Eyal, who explains why it is worth taking this forecast on limited bail and why Putin is strong in matters, stating: "Israel is the best place in the world today to live."

Liat Ron

08/06/2022

Wednesday, 08 June 2022, 13:31 Updated: 13:50

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Every few months, the World Bank, a financial institution owned by 189 countries around the world, updates its growth forecast - and the one it published yesterday is very depressing.

The World Bank has cut its global growth forecast for 2022 to 2.9% from 4.1% in the previous forecast, and warned that we may all experience years of weak growth and high prices, a dangerous combination that could hurt the economic stability of many countries still trying to recover from the corona plague. .

And if that is not enough, the bank expects the global growth rate to remain relatively low until the end of the current decade, due to low investment levels around the world.

The Governor of the World Bank, economist David Malpas, raised the bar of general panic when he wrote in the introduction to the report: “The world economy is in danger again.

It is facing high inflation, growth and personal growth at the same time.

Even if it avoids global moderation, the pain of stagnation (a situation where inflation is high, growth is low and the

unemployment rate is high, ie - a recession alongside inflation LR) may continue for several years - unless there are large increases in supply. "

China's economy will expand by only 4.3% compared to previous expectations of 8.1%, and Russia will shrink by almost 9% due to Western sanctions imposed on it. An additional 75 million people are expected to suffer from severe poverty. Economies from the Middle East are expected to enjoy high oil prices and grow by 5.3%.

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Served on behalf of Shahal

Russian President Vladimir Putin on horseback, in more ways than one (Photo: AP)

Putin on horseback

The one who did not come under pressure from the World Bank apocalypse is the "shark", CPA Amir Eyal, chairman of the "Infinity-Rams" investment group.

"I am very skeptical of World Bank publications," he reassures.

His "reports" are published in timings that do not allow him to bring an up-to-date picture of a dynamic market.

"It is possible to start a war in Ukraine. Despite media reports, the war is one-sided. The Ukrainians surrender and the Russians completely occupy the eastern region and advance with all their might to the south to gain access to the sea. From it steel around the world.The war will continue for a few more months, because Europeans and the West are heartbreaking it.

On the one hand the EU's daily receipt for gas and oil today stands at 250 million euros, when before the war it was only 120 million euros a day, meaning sanctions are for lip service only, and on the other hand Europe is sending weapons to Ukraine in bulk.

There are no sanctions, because each country maintains its own economy.

Germany, it will collapse and its factories will close if it does not have Russian oil.

True, the world situation at the moment is not encouraging, but it will gradually change for the better soon, when the Russians start exporting steel and wheat from Ukraine.

The Indians have increased oil imports and the Chinese are buying oil at a fixed price.

Putin is very strong on horseback and no one is saying that.

In terms of supply chain there will be no shortage of energy and wheat.

If there was a shortage of wheat, the price of rice would go up, because 'if there is no wheat you will eat rice'.

And the price of rice has not risen. "

"Because prices can be raised. In Egypt there are a hundred million people who consume wheat in quantities. If there is no wheat from Ukraine, they will bring wheat from India. Nothing is really catastrophic."

.

"The rise in the price of oil is not related to Putin but to Baiden who made a chain of failed decisions, the main one being to eliminate the oil shale industry because of the environment and now he is doing a reverse and back in it. "Because of Iran. If the Saudis turn on the tap, the price of a barrel could drop to around $ 60- $ 70. All 'scary' people talk about $ 140 a barrel because people want to hear fear and apprehension."

"Such organizations always take care of themselves first, because the situation is so dynamic that it can change in weeks - months. To correctly predict, one must understand the interests of those who determine them and identify who allows them to happen.

The American interest is that oil has gone down and not gone. "Go get the stone he threw, go change relations with the Saudis, who are now making a fortune thanks to him. In the end, he strengthened the Russians and the Iranians. What is certain is that the World Bank did not come out against him."

But if anyone thinks that Eyal's firm stance indicates admiration for the current situation, he is wrong: "Make no mistake. The macroeconomic picture at the moment is very bad, with very strong interests and countries know what to do to change it. The trade war will force the Chinese to sell more "The United States will open up, so it's all about temporary and local distress."

Amir Eyal.

"The Shark" and the businessman who answers the Governor of the World Bank (Photo: PR)

The show of the 70s

It is not for nothing that the current situation reminds World Bank analysts of the crisis of the 1970s, which was a combination of a spike in oil prices and interest rate hikes, which created stagnation, with the big difference being the low dollar and cheap oil prices.

The bank's president, Malpas, says that in order to reduce risks, decision-makers must help Ukraine, act against rising oil and food prices, help ease debt repayments, and accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy.

What should the State of Israel do to deal with the crisis?

Amir Eyal says that our problem is less big than others, which is already gratifying.

"We have a small farm and we can import everything that is more expensive from the outside, as we knew how to do with the masks. The rise in real estate prices is also an administrative decision.

The fact is that our inflation, which stands at 4%, is lower than that of other countries and similar to that of Switzerland.

By the way, the expectation is that US inflation will shrink from 8% today to 5% soon.

The State of Israel has the privilege of succeeding in this period in a good way.

We have energy independence, we export gas and buy it at half price from our reservoirs because of the amazing agreement that was made here and received so much criticism and we must not forget of course that we are also a technological powerhouse.

We have the best cards that will get better when Biden comes here in July and signs an agreement with Saudi Arabia. "

" We should always economize our actions wisely, save and not live as if there is no tomorrow.

We are all ultimately in the stock market through pensions, provident funds and continuing education, and only on the margins are private investment.

The important thing is not to panic.

We have every reason to sit and look at the world from a relatively safe place, because Russia and Ukraine do not really interest us.

"Israel is the best place in the world today to live in and it all depends on how we play with the amazing cards we received."

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