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War in Ukraine: more than one in two refugees could find work in the euro zone, according to the ECB

2022-06-20T12:12:53.030Z


More than one out of two Ukrainian refugees reaching the euro zone could find a job there, thus making it possible to "slightly attenuate" the shortage of labour...


More than one out of two Ukrainian refugees arriving in the euro zone could find a job there, thus making it possible to "

slightly alleviate

" the lack of labor on the labor market, noted the European Central Bank on Monday.

Based on previous waves of refugees and adapting to the current context, it is envisaged "

a medium-term activity rate of between 25% and 55% for refugees

" from Ukraine and of working age, according to a article published in the institution's monthly bulletin.

Read alsoThe war in Ukraine could last “for years”, according to the head of NATO

To speed up the integration of Ukrainian refugees, the EU gave them the right to access the labor market.

The resulting increase in labor supply "

could moderate slightly the tensions observed in the euro area labor market

", where "

the demand for labor (is) currently dynamic

and where there is “

worsening skills shortages

,” according to the article.

Many European countries, including Germany, the largest economy in the euro zone, are already experiencing recruitment difficulties which will worsen due to the aging of the population.

However, Ukrainian refugees face obstacles ranging from a lack of skills and language skills to a lack of childcare facilities.

Ukraine imposed martial law across the country when Russia launched its armed offensive on February 24, preventing men between the ages of 18 and 60 from leaving the country.

Thus, the first waves of refugees were made up of elderly people, children and finally women of working age.

Read alsoNicolas Baverez: "Ukraine facing the divisions of the West"

In the medium term, once martial law is lifted, the male population coming from Ukraine should increase;

between 50% and 75% of refugees arriving in the euro zone will be of working age, according to the article.

This would lead to an increase of "

between 0.2% and 0.8% of the working population of the euro zone

", or "

between 0.3 and 1.3 million

" people, estimates the ECB.

According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), up to 8.3 million refugees may have fled Ukraine by the end of the year.

Many are those who initially stay in countries bordering Ukraine, such as Poland, before gradually moving to other destinations.

Source: lefigaro

All business articles on 2022-06-20

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