Consumer behavior has rarely been so difficult to predict.
Will they be there for the sales starting this Wednesday?
Traders remain in doubt.
Inflation, which cuts into household budgets and encourages them to arbitrate in their spending, upsets all their forecasts.
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“
There are two hypotheses
, analyzes Emmanuel Le Roch, general delegate of Procos, which federates 310 brands.
Some consumers might want to buy what they want or need at a bargain price, anticipating that prices will be higher tomorrow.
This is the most favorable scenario for sales.
Conversely, another party probably no longer has the financial resources to make unconstrained expenditures, even at low prices.
»
Air hole in June
Rising fuel, food and rent prices are increasing household spending constraints.
The share devoted to other purchasing items, and in particular to clothing, is reduced.
Inflation, moreover, does not spare the textile sector.
Last May, the price of clothing and shoes increased by 4% over one year according to INSEE.
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In this context, consumers pay much more attention to the labels of what they buy.
“
In March, the price rose among the selection criteria for customers in the textile industry
,” notes Hélène Janicaud, director at Kantar.
Until this spring, they favored comfort.
The price is now also important
.”
The players who are gaining market share are the sports brands (Decathlon has once again become the second clothing brand in France behind Intersport) and those positioned at the entry level.
Primark, which is just beginning to sell online and in a very limited way (click & collect for children), is experiencing strong growth and is regaining its level of attendance before the health crisis.
Action distinguished itself by entering the Top 5 (in purchase volumes) in the underwear, socks and household linen segment.
However, even the budget devoted to these low-cost players is decreasing, while the use of second-hand goods is increasing.
Vinted has become the number one fashion seller by volume on the internet.
“
Buying clothes online is also getting poorer
“says Hélène Janicaud.
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Retailers are caught between this customer demand, which they cannot ignore, and the rise in their own costs.
"
They want to sell their stocks at affordable prices but must also preserve their margins
," said Yohann Petiot, general delegate of the Alliance du Commerce, which brings together major clothing brands.
Transport costs remain extremely high, at over $10,000 per container.
They are also affected by the increase in raw materials and that of their rent.
In addition, they must start repaying their state-guaranteed loan (PGE)
.”
Scalded by the health crisis, distributors have often reduced the volumes ordered from their suppliers to avoid being overwhelmed by stocks.
Shortages have reinforced the phenomenon.
"
At some brands, the sales will probably last less this year
," predicts Yohann Petiot.
But to set the level of discounts, clothing brands navigate in the fog.
The evolution of sales since January is anything but illuminating.
The first quarter was very bad (-14.2% compared to 2019).
High-dose teleworking and then the war in Ukraine did not help. Textile sales jumped in May, up 11.5% over two years: unheard of
.
“
The weather was very good and it had been two years since we had been open during this period,
analyzes Yohann Petiot.
The French may have gotten dressed again
.
But in June, it's again the cold shower (- 7% compared to 2019 on June 19, according to Retail Int.).
Have customers shunned stores in anticipation of the sales?
The brands hope so.
