Gas Crisis: Is Russia Sending More Gas to the West Through Slovakia?

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Slovakian pipeline station Veľké Kapušany (archive photo): From Wednesday onwards, almost twice as much gas as last could flow westwards - provided Russia's state-owned company Gazprom sticks to its registrations

Photo: RADOVAN STOKLASA/ REUTERS

In the gas dispute between Russia and the EU states, a new volte may be looming.

According to data from the Slovakian pipeline operator Eustream, the Russian state-owned company Gazprom has reserved much larger capacities than usual on the Transgas pipeline for Wednesday.

This large overhead line runs through the Ukraine and Slovakia to Germany, among other places.

According to this, deliveries of almost 69 million cubic meters were registered for the Slovakian crossing point Veľké Kapušany near the Ukrainian border for Wednesday - almost twice as much as last time, when around 37 million cubic meters of gas flowed per day.

The additional 32 million cubic meters registered correspond roughly to the delivery cutbacks by the Baltic Sea pipeline Nord Stream, which Gazprom announced on Monday, citing renewed turbine problems.

"If this actually happens, Gazprom will in principle deliver almost the same quantities that will be missing on Nord Stream due to the new cut," said Andreas Schröder, gas strategist at the London analysis house ICIS, the SPIEGEL.

That would mean that the Russian state-owned company would compensate for the losses - mind you the recently announced reduction from 40 percent to 20 percent of the pipeline capacity of Nord Stream 1. "But I wouldn't bet on it yet," said Schröder.

Is the Kremlin changing its strategy?

On the one hand, the data available so far are preliminary announcements, so-called nominations.

They are important for network operators to ensure gas transport.

However, they can still be changed, i.e. renominated, until shortly before the actual deliveries.

On the other hand, Gazprom has so far not compensated for the reduction in deliveries by Nord Stream via the other pipelines.

On the contrary: the rivers temporarily receded here.

This is another reason why the Russians are suspected of using the alleged turbine problems only as an excuse to supply less gas and put pressure on the West.

"Gazprom should have rerouted long ago," said ICIS expert Schröder.

"It would be a change of strategy if they did it now."

The fact that Gazprom also announced corresponding capacities the day before the restart of the Baltic Sea pipeline on Thursday last week - and stuck to the nominations - speaks in favor of the latter.

Gas prices in Europe are going through the roof again

The nervousness on Europe's gas markets is greater than it has been for a long time.

On Wednesday, the price for a megawatt hour for delivery in August on the Dutch wholesale reference market TTF shot up from 179 euros to 214 euros in the evening.

With the exception of a price peak at the beginning of March, the fuel was more expensive than ever before.

Further substantial tariff increases are becoming increasingly likely for gas consumers.