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Model calculation by the Federal Network Agency: Gas emergency could be prevented

2022-08-08T17:07:34.202Z

Germany could get through the winter without gas supply problems. For this, consumption would have to go down – and the transit volume to neighboring countries would have to be reduced. LPG is crucial for the following winter.



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Heating (symbolic image): According to the Federal Network Agency, supply problems with gas can be prevented under certain conditions

Photo: Hauke-Christian Dittrich / dpa

The Federal Network Agency considers it possible, under certain conditions, that a gas emergency can be avoided in the coming winter.

This emerges from the agency's latest catalog of scenarios, which was published on Monday.

One variant describes the measures that the authority believes are necessary, assuming that the Baltic Sea pipeline Nord Stream 1 will continue to be used at only 20 percent of its maximum capacity until June 2023 - as is currently the case.

In order to prevent a gas shortage in the coming winter, in addition to a 20 percent reduction in consumption, a 20 percent reduction in transit volumes to neighboring countries would then be necessary.

If the German gas storage facilities are also to be 40 percent full by February 1st and the supply is to be secured for next winter, the model also means that the import capacities for liquefied natural gas, for example, must be increased.

According to the federal government, the first LNG terminals should go into operation as early as next winter.

In the event of a so-called gas shortage, demand exceeds supply.

After proclaiming the highest level of danger in the gas emergency plan, according to the existing rules, the Federal Network Agency would then allocate the natural gas still available according to need.

According to the Federal Network Agency, even assuming that no more Russian natural gas flows to Germany, a shortage in the coming winter can still be avoided.

However, the transit volumes would have to be further reduced if there were no increase in imports.

In all zero percent scenarios, however, there will be supply problems in the following winter of 2023/24 without additional countermeasures such as higher consumption reductions.

Federal states demand a say in gas emergency plans

The European gas emergency plan to prepare for a possible stop in Russian gas supplies comes into force on Tuesday.

The new law was published in the Official Journal of the EU on Monday.

The plan envisages all EU countries voluntarily reducing their gas consumption by 15 percent from the beginning of August to March next year - compared to the average consumption over the past five years during this period.

If not enough is saved and there are far-reaching supply bottlenecks, the next step can be to trigger an EU-wide alarm with binding savings targets.

Several federal states want to have a say in the emergency plans, according to which gas would be distributed and rationed in the event of an acute shortage.

In view of the significant economic and social effects, this decision cannot be left to the Federal Network Agency alone, said Hamburg's First Mayor, Peter Tschentscher (SPD), the "Welt".

"The federal government should involve the federal states in establishing the baselines for prioritizing gas deliveries."

It is about the heat and power supply for private consumers, but also about maintaining industrial production, on which the economy and many everyday goods depend, said Tschentscher.

Because the production chains are complexly networked, it is important to correctly assess the practical effects.

»The knowledge of the countries and the regional gas network operators is of great importance.«

Berlin's Economics Senator Stephan Schwarz (independent) said that the Federal Network Agency was "clearly obliged" by law to make all the necessary preparations and to develop a basis for decision-making.

But in an emergency, the decisions would affect the federal states.

That is why they must be "seriously" included.

The previous procedure let this “completely miss”.

ani/dpa

Source: spiegel

All business articles on 2022-08-08

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