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China: Foreign trade weakens - but business with Russia is thriving

2022-09-07T06:42:19.732Z


Experts expected double-digit export growth, but China is now in a much worse position. Trade with the USA is suffering, the People's Republic is oriented towards Moscow.


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Container ships in a port near the city of Yangzhou: Demand is slowing

Photo: ALEX PLAVEVSKI / EPA

China's export growth has surprisingly slowed down significantly.

In August, exports calculated in US dollars only increased by 7.1 percent compared to the same period last year, according to Chinese customs in Beijing.

Experts had expected double-digit growth after exports rose by 18 percent in July.

Imports, too, developed worse than forecast with growth of only 0.3 percent.

In July, an increase of 2.3 percent was recorded.

According to experts, the reasons for the weak numbers are the bad mood among Chinese consumers, the crisis in the real estate market in China and corona lockdowns.

Exports are suffering primarily from weaker global demand due to rising inflation.

The export weakness may have come earlier than expected because "demand from the US and EU has already slowed while shipping prices have fallen significantly," said Zhou Hao, chief economist at investment bank Guotai Junan International, according to Reuters.

He assumes that the price effects will continue to affect trade.

China trades more intensively with Russia

China's trade with Russia, against which international economic sanctions had been imposed for its invasion of Ukraine, continued to develop strongly.

China, which politically stands behind Russian President Vladimir Putin, imported 59.3 percent more from Russia – mostly energy.

Conversely, Chinese exporters delivered 26.5 percent more goods to the neighboring country.

The European Union was able to increase its exports to China by 3.1 percent.

Conversely, China exported 11.1 percent more to the EU.

In trade with the US, on the other hand, both China's imports and exports fell.

Chinese exports fell by 3.8 percent, while imports from the US fell by as much as 7.4 percent.

China is weakening

The Chinese leadership's strict zero-Covid policy is weighing on the country's economy.

At the end of August, dozens of cities, which account for a third of gross domestic product, were affected by closures.

The analysis house Capital Economics specifically counted 41 cities affected by corona measures, which account for 32 percent of Chinese economic output.

Municipal lockdowns could also exacerbate bottlenecks in global supply chains.

China's industry is generally in poor shape, contracting again in August, according to the Bureau of Statistics survey.

The purchasing managers' index determined in the process fell by 0.4 to 49.0 points.

Growth is only signaled from the age of 50.

The survey suggests that economic activity showed little improvement in August compared to the previous month.

Not only are corona measures affecting the economy, but also the worst heat wave in decades and a crisis on the real estate market.

Banking economists have therefore lowered their forecast for growth in the world's second largest economy after the USA.

The experts from ANZ, for example, only expect an increase in gross domestic product of three percent this year, after four percent had previously been expected.

ptz/dpa

Source: spiegel

All business articles on 2022-09-07

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