Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in France is expected to reach 0.3% in the third quarter, compared to the previous quarter, according to a forecast by the Banque de France published on Thursday.
Despite a very high level of uncertainty linked in particular to the energy crisis, "
activity continues to hold up overall
", according to the results of the latest economic survey carried out by the central bank.
Read alsoThe bitter potion of the ECB for the economy
Insee, for its part, forecast slightly lower growth of 0.2% in the third quarter on Wednesday.
“
Activity was a little better than expected during the month of August
,” Banque de France Director General Olivier Garnier said during a press briefing.
Business grew in market services, leisure and catering, as well as consulting and programming.
But the rental of equipment and automobiles fell due to supply problems, details the economic note.
In construction, activity is “
virtually stable
” and it is progressing slightly in industry, where it is experiencing contrasting trends depending on the sector.
No impact of bad weather conditions
Activity is thus progressing in computer and electronic products, as well as in clothing, but it is declining in the chemical, pharmaceutical, wood and paper industries.
The food industry is also progressing slightly.
Business leaders interviewed by the Banque de France "
do not mention at this stage any significant impact of bad weather conditions
", namely drought, "
on production during the month of August
" for this sector.
For the month of September, "
business leaders expect an increase in activity in most sectors
", according to the note.
The situation of order books is stable in industry and “
deteriorating in construction
”, remaining however above its average over fifteen years.
Supply difficulties are decreasing but still concern one out of two companies in industry (51%) and a little less in construction (43%).
"
This decline corresponds to what we see at the global level
", comments Olivier Garnier.
Conversely, in terms of recruitment difficulties, the director of the Banque de France observes “
no significant drop
”.
Finally, inflationary pressure is decreasing but “
the decline that we see in producer prices will take time to show up in consumer prices
,” says Mr. Garnier.
On September 15, the Banque de France will revise its growth projection for the whole of 2022, as well as for 2023 and 2024.
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