Is Israel on the rise?

Not in everything related to the immigration balance

The immigration data from Israel reflect a sharp jump in the number of "immigrants" in 2020. The reasons for this are complex and in the absence of recent research one can only make do with speculation, but the unusual figure is a good opportunity to look back at the complex relationship that Israel's economy manages with immigrants and immigrants

Shlomo Ma'oz

10/09/2022

Saturday, September 10, 2022, 01:58

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Operation "Create Israel": immigrants from Ethiopia on the plane's lamb with the reception server Pnina Tamno Shata (Photo: Reuven Castro)

The status of the "descendants", since the establishment of the state, immigrants abroad in the international languages, reached at the end of 2020 756,000 Israelis who left Israel and are staying abroad for over a year.

Naturally, this number does not include those who returned, so the number of those who left is net.

According to the calculations of the CBS and according to the death rates accepted in Israel from which the death rates of the leavers were derived (depending on life expectancy which is also derived from adequate medical treatment), between 572,000 and 612,000 Israelis lived abroad. This estimate does not include Israelis born abroad. to, even if they are registered in the Israel Resident Registry.

Contrary to perhaps the instinct we grew up with, the fear of a lack of Israelis who will serve in the army and build Israel between the great wars that have taken place, there are also positive aspects to leaving Israel and partially returning to Israel.

It's true, in 1976, the people coming down were called "a fall of Nemush" by Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin during his first term in office, in the years 1974-1977 (Rabin held the position of Prime Minister for the second time from July 13, 1992 until he was assassinated on November 4, 1995). Rabin's decision to abandon the State of Israel was deep and real: the population then numbered only 3.55 million compared to 9.51 million today. Despite the judgments, in professional language the immigrants are considered immigrants who left the country for various reasons, whether economic, personal security or extended family.

The partial movement of Israelis between Israel and the Diaspora, between Israelis who immigrated and their sons who returned to Israel, went abroad, acquired an education and returned to their homeland, has a tremendous contribution to the Israeli economy, in terms of achievements and technological and scientific capabilities. To begin with, the poor Israeli economy that absorbed the immigration at the time, did not have the ability to spread out and invest in fields Many and advanced, beyond the army, security, the cultivation of the land and advanced agriculture. The incessant circular movement of Israelis and their families, between the visible and Israel, brought to Israel knowledge and abilities that Israel could not have developed on its own, even in its advanced universities

. Accumulate and assimilate it in Israel, the whole world is laid out before Israel, perhaps unlike countries that lack a circular movement of immigrants out and in. So, for example, Irish immigrants to Australia are cut off from their mother country and so are most of the Italians and Greeks who immigrated to the USA or to those most talented Indian stars, who enrich the USAb and abandon their homeland.

It is true that there is also a brain drain from Israel abroad, that is, Israel invested in Israelis and they took the human capital that the state invested in them and gave it to Gentiles in exchange for a significantly better and more comfortable life.

Nevertheless, the balance is positive - bringing in human capital from Jews who became Israelis, since the 1930s and 1940s The former (with the tremendous contribution of German Jewry to the scientific, banking, university and industrial capabilities of the Israeli economy, through the knowledge of managing civil systems of the Iraqi Jews who came up in the 1950s, based on the British tradition, until the miraculous rise of the Jews of the Soviet Union in the nineties of the last century), or their spouses who accompanied the Jews, is priceless.

The mutual fertilization, scientific, economic, commercial, financial, technological, military, is the foundation of Israel's strength and achievements in all fields.

Immigrants in Ashdod welcome the new chairman of the agency, Doron Almog, at the start of the school year (photo: official website, Guy Yehiali)

Downhill jump

There are fluctuations in the descent from Israel.

In 2020, there was a sharp increase in the "decline" from Israel to 10,779, a record that has not been seen since the decrease of 11,725 ​​in the previous record of 2007. These are absolute numbers of immigrants according to the CBS calculations.

The Central Bureau of Statistics calculates a net number of emigrants, which is the difference between Israelis who leave for a stay of more than a year in considerable countries and those who returned from abroad after staying there for more than a year continuously. The population is growing steadily, therefore it is important to examine the share of emigrants in relation to the population.

That is why we do " The migration balance rate", which is more correct for our purposes, takes into account the decrease from Israel net in relation to the total average population for a given year. From the calculation of the net migration balance, which takes into account the size of the population, it becomes clear that in 2020, 1.2 people immigrated from Israel for every thousand people, for the first time over 1 person decreased per thousand people Since 2008.

In 1990, 14,200 people left Israel and immigrated abroad net, that is, a departure compared to a return to Israel of Israelis other than as part of tourism, 14,200 people with a net "emigration balance" abroad at a rate of 3.05%, that is, a decrease of over 3 people per thousand people.

The decline was apparently related to the first intifada that broke out on a bright day in December 1987 and continued in full force until the Gulf War and the Madrid Conference in 1991, to which Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir was dragged, almost against his will, waned after the Oslo Accords in 1993.

After that, the decline from Israel also retreated for two years and again jumped in time Yitzhak Rabin's term as Prime Minister, for the second time in office, led to a sharp rate of 18,200 net immigrants in 1993 with a net immigration balance of 3.46%, that is, 3.5 people who emigrated per thousand inhabitants.

Another surge of foreign migration of 18,700 in 1995 with a net migration balance of 3.37%. These are alarming numbers.

Not in the government of Rabin Hashem, the jump in immigration from Israel is explained by the fact that some immigrants from the former Soviet Union did not find their place in Israeli society and the Israeli economy, received an Israeli identity card and passport - and whoop, many of them found their way to countries where they could earn well and live peacefully, such as Canada.

Israel was only a transit station for them, perhaps from the beginning.

But at the same time a blessing came.

The economy flourished starting from the industrial years mainly because of the huge influx of hundreds of thousands of immigrants to Israel from the former USSR who poured into Israel enormous educational assets, worth tens of billions of dollars at the time, according to the assessment of the governor of the Bank of Israel at the time, Prof. Michael Bruno, in addition to diligence, perseverance and abilities. The government increased the budget to accommodate the immigration, which increased economic activity, and in addition to that, a peace agreement was signed with Jordan.

And Israel remained silent until September 2000, the withdrawal of the IDF from southern Lebanon in May 2000 and the Camp David conference in July of the same year. At that time, the second intifada broke out in September, which hit the Israeli home without mercy, buses full of passengers flew into the sky in suicide explosions that continued every day, during the term of Ariel Sharon as Prime Minister.

The flight from Israel increased, in 2001 27,200 people left Israel. In addition to this there was an economic blow, in 2001 the bursting of the global technology bubble, the dot.com, is the industry of the Internet sites and their ownership. In the same year, a net of 19,400 people left Israel abroad .

Net migration abroad continued with 19,000 in 2002. The rate of the balance of migration was about 3% in these two years, 3 people left for every 1,000 inhabitants.

The end of the second intifada, mainly after the death of the terrorist Yasser Arafat, brought calm - apartment prices were stable and even declining until 2007, the decline from the country slowed significantly.

In Israel, there were plenty of apartments with government support and the government's promise to the contractors, Ariel Sharon's promise as the Minister of Construction, to purchase apartments that would not be sold (since the huge influx of immigrants from the former Soviet Union). The flight of some of the immigrants who came from recently left more than enough apartments.

Since then, the economic boom began following the reforms What Finance Minister Binyamin Netanyahu did in the Ariel Sharon government, starting in 2003, there was a consistent decrease in emigration from the country. Between 2005 and 2009, an average of 9,780 people immigrated from Israel per year. Apartment prices dropped dramatically from 1997 to 2007 at a rate of 25%!! The main possibility to purchase an apartment was with The end of the intifada and before the wave of increases in apartment prices in 2008. The low point of departure from Israel was in 2009, only 4,898 people, with a balance rate of immigration of 0.65 people per thousand people. There is an apartment, there is economic activity, they do not leave.

In the five years until 2013, the decrease decreased to 6,260 per year on average, for ten years after that, until 2019, only 6,727 people left Israel for an average migration balance of only 0.8 per 1,000 residents.

The year of Corona was a turning point, the number of immigrants from Israel jumped to 10,779 people as mentioned.

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Immigrants from Ukraine arrive in Israel at the beginning of the Russian invasion (photo: official website, Liron Cohen Pour, Ministry of Immigration and Absorption)

The one that comes up

We need to study the issue of decline in 2020. It is possible that the reason for the renewal of the increase in decline from Israel is related to the corona that paralyzed Israel, and the inability of some of the public to realize their expectations in a country that is a kind of economic island, because we will remember that the corona hit the whole world.

A second reason undoubtedly involves the prices of apartments in the Emirates, which no longer give young people a chance to realize their dreams, the prices of apartments in Israel are imaginary, the dream abroad, despite the increase in apartment prices in the rest of the world, is still beckoning. That's

why Canada.

The theories of immigration are complicated. If the immigration is of educated people, the veterans who are not intelligent or have the ability to operate in a modern and open economy, feel pushed into a corner and pushed into jobs of a more manual and daily nature, the resentment increases, not only against a background of a decrease in wages relative to the rest of the powerful population, but also because the ability to purchase apartments decreases.

If there is immigration to Israel of people with low education, they become day laborers.

This means that the blue collar is pushed to the margins, and the salary of the veterans is affected.

The entry of immigrants into Israel harms the public services that veterans receive, such as education and health.

These are services that are difficult for the government to increase their supply in a short time.

In addition, the entry of immigrants into Israel naturally leads to an increase in housing prices, more population on a given and inflexible supply, especially in the face of failed governments who did not know, since Ariel Sharon served as Minister of Construction and Housing in 1992-1990.

respond appropriately.

The entry of immigrants with a different culture from the veterans leads to social tension of a heterogeneous population, which the state or the government is unable to deal with, such as unjustified hatred of the successful Russians or demonstrations by Ethiopians due to police behavior motivated by the profile of the person on the street.

On the other hand, a decrease from Israel frees up residences, a decrease of adults reduces the pressure on the government to take care of the budget for an adult population.

The decline of young Israelis is a loss for the economy, the young immigrants are usually entrepreneurs with courage and flight, who are not afraid to take risks.

In the end, the population should be multi-aged, as in pension systems, more young people who will form an economic basis to support the aging population.

Most of the immigrants are aged 20-39 years.

Economies with an aging population and few young people, such as in Japan, represent a decrease in growth and consume increasing budgets for the care of adults, the founders, the parents.

In Israel we have also lovingly taken in an older population from the former USSR. They are a burden on the economy, but Israel takes care of them willingly, even though sometimes their sons have gone far in search of the golden calf. Some have even found it.

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• Immigration

• down

• Descent from the country

• come up

• immigration