Ifo calculations: AKW runtime extension would reduce the electricity price slightly

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Nuclear power plant Neckarwestheim: What should happen to the remaining reactors?

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According to the Ifo Institute, an extension of the service life of the three remaining German nuclear power plants would slow down the increase in electricity prices slightly.

According to calculations by the Munich economists, the power plants could generate around four percent of Germany's electricity in the coming year.

The price would therefore also be four percent cheaper than if it were switched off.

In 2024, the dampening effect of nuclear power would be even smaller.

According to the calculation, the price would only be about 1.4 percent lower.

Nuclear power could also only replace a small part of the electricity generated by gas-fired power plants.

According to the calculation, the share of gas electricity would only drop from 8.3 percent to 7.6 percent.

"Because nuclear power does not replace natural gas one-to-one, but above all coal in the short term," said Ifo electricity expert Mathias Mier.

In addition, the longer terms would hamper the expansion of renewable energies in the medium term.

Because investments in photovoltaics and wind would be lower than without an extension of the term, wrote Mier.

Expensive energy is currently the biggest driver of inflation, which many institutes predict could cause Germany to slip into recession.

In the study, Mier ran through several scenarios.

In order to calculate the effect of the runtime extension on the electricity mix and price development, he assumed that the three reactors would be supplied with new fuel rods and “continue to operate more or less without major interruption until the end of 2030”.

According to the original schedule, the three remaining nuclear power plants are to be shut down at the end of December.

There has been a debate about extending the term for months.

Opponents argue that this would be irrelevant to security of energy supply, since electricity, unlike gas, is not in short supply.

The Ifo Institute is advising the federal government not to rule out the possibility of extending the term.

"Not all determinants of future electricity consumption and in particular the availability of natural gas in winter" are already known today, it said.

That's why it might make sense "to keep the option of nuclear power open beyond a crisis-related, short-term extension in the coming year."

Gas-fired power plants primarily compensate for fluctuations in demand and renewable energies, explained Ifo expert Mier.

Nuclear power is unsuitable for this.

The cost structure also requires continuous operation.

High profits expected from nuclear power plant operators

Ifo expert Mier estimates that the profits of nuclear power plant operators in the current year will be unexpectedly higher by 7.9 billion euros due to the high price of natural gas.

Other operators also generated high unexpected profits.

Mier believes that the discussion about changing the structure of the electricity market is »not expedient, because the electricity market works.

What doesn't work is the natural gas market," said the researcher.

»There was poor political diversification.«

Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck proposed last week that two of the three nuclear power plants still in operation in Germany be transferred to a temporary operational reserve by the end of the year.

As provided for in the nuclear phase-out law, they would thus be taken off the grid and no longer feed in electricity.

They should only be used as a reserve if it is necessary to stabilize the power grid.

In the case of stretching, however, the nuclear power plants would remain connected to the grid with reduced output and would continue to supply electricity.

Habeck also justified his decision at the employers' day on Tuesday with the fact that the nuclear power plants could only close the impending power gap to a small extent.

The economists oppose Habeck's plans to keep two of the three nuclear power plants still in operation in reserve for the coming winter.

And even within the traffic light coalition there is still a need for discussion.

For example, the energy policy spokesman for the FDP parliamentary group, Michael Kruse, is asking the Green Economics Minister for details on the planned reserve operation.

mmq/dpa/Reuters