Oktoberfest in Munich: tradition and modernity
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According to a study, cities and districts with the best future prospects are further south in Germany.
In its “Atlas of the Future 2022”, the research and consulting company Prognos certifies that the district of Munich has the best prospects, followed by Erlangen and the city of Munich.
The Autostadt Wolfsburg is the only independent city in northern Germany that ranks 5th among the top 10. The study sees significant risks for the districts of Mansfeld-Südharz (ranked 400th) and Stendal (399th) in Saxony-Anhalt and the district of Prignitz (398th) in Brandenburg .
The town of Pirmasens in the Palatinate and the cities of Gelsenkirchen and Oberhausen in the Ruhr area also ranked among the bottom of the rankings for the »Handelsblatt«.
According to the study, regions specializing in future industries are generally well prepared.
“This type is rare in eastern Germany.” According to this, around a quarter of the regions in this group are found in western Germany, mostly in southern Germany.
A lack of skilled workers and a shrinking population, on the other hand, are a major challenge, especially in eastern Germany.
However, there are also municipalities with great prospects for the future.
The city of Jena ranks 24th.
Better prepared for crises
The experts explain that long-term growth patterns have not been destroyed by the corona crisis.
“Economically powerful regions are growing faster again after the crisis.” This applies to metropolises such as Hamburg (22), Cologne (65) and Munich, but also to Erlangen, Darmstadt (7), Jena and Münster (19).
These regions would only be hit by crises in the short term.
"One reason for this is that their economy is geared towards growth sectors." On the other hand, districts in which the corona crisis and structural problems overlap would have difficulties: old sectors, low income, aging and shrinking populations.
The study also sees a linking of large cities and their environs as a recipe for success.
She cites the metropolitan areas of Berlin, the Rhine rail network, Frankfurt am Main, Stuttgart, Nuremberg-Erlangen and Munich as examples.
The analysis also confirms potential in some regions in the middle, such as Münsterland, Emsland, Mainfranken and the Donau-Iller region.
These are on the verge of future opportunities - also independent of the metropolises.
"For a long time it was considered a law of nature that economic activities in Germany were increasingly shifting to the metropolitan regions," the authors explain.
More and more citizens have moved to the cities.
"Now the trend is weakening because the metropolises are suffering from "growing pains": with problems such as a shortage of space, a lack of housing, and gridlock, which sometimes turn into social conflicts."
For the study, Prognos examines the economic sustainability of all independent cities and districts in Germany every three years – there are currently 400. 29 indicators of competitiveness and innovative strength, the labor market situation, demographics, the social situation and prosperity are taken into account.