After the shortage at the gas station pumps, an electrical crisis in a winter that promises to be tense?
The manager of the French electricity transmission network RTE has warned that an extension of the social movement which has affected the nuclear fleet for several weeks could have "heavy consequences" on the electricity supply of France in the heart of winter.
At the time of the global energy crisis, France is weakened as winter approaches, with nuclear electricity production at its lowest due to maintenance and repairs or inspections of pipes for corrosion problems.
These works follow a "favorable" development, likely to "reduce the risk on security of supply", and to consolidate the "prospect of an availability of 45 GW in the heart of winter, in January", estimated Tuesday RTE.
“This objective, everything indicates that we will hold it”, had judged President Emmanuel Macron on Saturday.
On September 14, by revealing its winter scenarios, RTE had placed the security of electricity supply in France under increased vigilance and this, from the autumn, an “exceptional situation”.
Meanwhile, the wage strike that has affected the nuclear fleet for several weeks has added uncertainty to the manager's winter forecasts.
EDF has postponed the restart of five reactors
"The social movements led to extensions of outages generally of two to three weeks on the reactors whose return to service was imminent or close" and "also cause delays in maintenance" for the other units, explains RTE, which on Tuesday presented its updated forecasts for the period from mid-October to mid-November.
EDF has already postponed the restart of five reactors.
A total of 27 reactors were shut down on Tuesday for work or maintenance out of the 56 in the nuclear fleet.
The strike notably affects the Gravelines plant (North), the largest in France, whose employees voted Monday at a general meeting to continue the strike.
On this day of interprofessional strike, around 350 to 400 people gathered Tuesday morning in front of the EDF site where mobilized employees organized a filtering dam to slow down the pace of entry into the plant.
Read alsoElectricity: should we fear a shortage if the strike movement spreads to nuclear power plants?
The participation of EDF employees in the midday strike amounted to 16.3%, according to the group where the first bilateral meetings with management and unions (CGT, FO and CFDT) will begin on Wednesday after the signing of a branch agreement.
The manager warns: “an extension of the social movement would have serious consequences on the heart of winter”.
The uncertainties about the availability of the reactor fleet led RTE in its new forecasts to match its winter vigilance scenario with a “negative outlook” at the start of November for nuclear power.
As of November 1, the manager is counting on an availability of the nuclear fleet of 28 GW.
It would be 38 GW on 1 December.
A mild autumn and falling consumption
Apart from this unknown factor, “on the whole this monthly reassessment contains more favorable than unfavorable news”, pointed out Thomas Veyrenc, executive director in charge of strategy, forecasting and evaluation at RTE.
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"RTE anticipates a very low risk for the security of supply for the next two weeks and a moderate risk at the beginning of November (with the main uncertainty being the availability of reactors currently affected by social movements)", he explains.
The manager cites several favorable factors: firstly the occurrence of episodes of early or severe cold "very unlikely" by the end of October, but also the "very high levels" in France and Europe of gas stocks, which makes it possible to produce electricity or even the "hydraulic stocks" which "are better" even if they are still low.
Another reassuring element for energy security, according to RTE: a drop in electricity consumption of around 3 to 4% in September compared to the trend for the 1st half, under the effect of the increase in electricity prices. energy.
