Business failures will take off sharply next year on an international scale after having fallen sharply during the pandemic and then slowly recovered this year, forecasts the insurer Allianz Trade in a study published on Thursday.
"
After two years of decline we anticipate a general acceleration of business failures
," wrote the insurer in a report published Thursday and titled "
business risk is back
."
Globally, it anticipates an increase in failures of around 19% in 2023 compared to the current year, against +10% in 2022. They are “
already a reality
”, notes the organization which underlines the progression double-digit insolvency proceedings already in India, Australia, Canada, Turkey and Austria in the first half of 2022. Rising interest rates and wage hikes granted due to inflation are two of the factors explaining the increased difficulties of companies, in particular in the construction, transport, telecom and textile sectors.
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The increase in insolvencies is all the more marked as these were at an artificially low level during the pandemic due to financial aid.
In France, collective proceedings opened with the commercial courts between July 1 and September 30 increased by 69% compared to the summer of 2021, recently observed the specialist firm Altarès, which noted a sharp rise in defaults this summer. .
Allianz Trade forecasts a 29% increase in insolvencies next year on French territory, exceeding pre-pandemic levels.
In detail, Western Europe has already recorded one of the highest levels of the areas studied in the first half of the year with a 24% increase in insolvencies over one year.
"
Looking ahead, the energy bill will remain the biggest drag on profitability
," says Allianz Trade, referring to soaring electricity and gas costs since the outbreak of war in Ukraine.
Europe is meeting with mixed fortunes: France and the United Kingdom should record a 10% increase in insolvencies over the whole of 2022, but Italy should see them decline.
Like Italy, other countries such as the United States, China and Germany are still enjoying low levels of corporate insolvencies,
