New alert on the electrical network.
While many nuclear power plants remain shut down and the consumption of the French is monitored like milk on fire by the authorities, the network manager published this Friday an update of its forecasts for the coming months.
And the forecasts are mixed.
According to RTE, on the tails side, the situation will be relatively under control in the next six months: "
extreme situations [...] are not the most probable
", and "
in no case does France run a risk of “
black-out
”, that is to say total loss of control of the electrical system
”.
This winter, only a few "
Ecowatt
red
" signals - indicating extreme tension expected on the network the next day - are to be expected, in the worst case.
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Another encouraging element, the fall in electricity consumption is confirmed every week: in its latest publication, the manager thus indicates that "
electricity consumption in France restated for weather and calendar effects is down compared to previous years
", from around 5.4% over the past week, and 6.6% over the month just ended.
A situation explained mainly by the significant drop in consumption by large industry, compared to previous years.
“
A downward effect is also perceptible in the residential sector (and to a lesser extent tertiary), but will have to be confirmed in the coming weeks as temperatures drop.
“says the company.
Household sobriety efforts therefore also play a role.
A major risk next January
So much for the positives.
On the face side, the manager is worried about the situation expected next January, considering the risk of tension on the network “
high
”.
The delays accumulated by EDF to restart the power plants play a role: "
The availability of the nuclear fleet is today slightly lower than the central forecast of RTE at the beginning of September
", notes the company, which points in particular to the responsibility of the "
social movements
having put stopping the reloading works during the month of October
".
If the risk is minimal over the next few weeks, which seem to confirm RTE's previous forecasts, in January the network will be scrutinized very closely.
Several red Ecowatt signals could be sent to ask consumers to make efforts, but these will depend “
largely on climatic conditions and the possible occurrence of even a moderate cold snap
”.
