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VW employees in Zwickau: Supply chains remain a problem
Photo: Hendrik Schmidt / dpa
According to the Berlin research institute DIW, the economic prospects for Germany brightened slightly before the winter.
The economic barometer published on Wednesday by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) rose in November.
At 82.5 points, it rose by a good eight points compared to the low in October.
The researchers wrote that the probability of a gas shortage in winter has decreased in recent weeks.
In addition, the federal government's relief packages are helping to cushion the consequences of the crisis.
"The German economy is proving to be more resilient overall than expected and can probably avoid the crash that many feared," said DIW economic expert Guido Baldi.
"Unfortunately, however, there is little hope of a quick and strong recovery from the current difficult situation," he qualified.
companies under constant stress
The export-oriented economy will increasingly feel the effects of the weakening of the global economy in the coming months.
The slight recovery of the DIW barometer, which is based on a large number of monthly data series, should not be interpreted prematurely as the end of the trough.
It remains well below the neutral 100 point mark.
The service sector has so far been supported by the robust consumption of private households, even if the inflation-related loss of purchasing power is becoming increasingly noticeable.
According to the DIW, the financial situation is difficult for many households.
In addition, the savings that were partially built up during the pandemic are gradually being used up.
Furthermore, the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine has a high potential for escalation, the researchers wrote.
The current corona wave in China could exacerbate the problems in international supply chains again.
In any case, many industrial companies in Germany are under constant stress in view of the previous delays in global value chains, the energy crisis and the enormous inflation.
The number of new orders is declining and there are no signs of recovery.
After the currently high order backlog has been processed, a lull is imminent.
Some relaxation in a shortage economy
The ifo Institute reports slightly positive signals from the economy.
The lack of material in German industry is therefore lower than it has been for a good year and a half.
In November, 59.3 percent of companies reported bottlenecks, as the ifo Institute reported in its monthly survey.
This is the lowest value since April 2021. In October, 63.8 percent of companies complained about shortages of important materials and intermediate products.
“The numbers give hope.
Nevertheless, one cannot yet speak of a far-reaching relaxation,” said Klaus Wohlrabe, head of the ifo surveys.
»Many orders still cannot be processed.«
In the important automotive industry, the proportion of affected companies rose against the trend from 74.9 to 83.2 percent.
In mechanical engineering, it fell, but only to 78.7 percent.
In metal production and processing, on the other hand, the situation has eased: at 16.1 percent, the share of companies is as low as it was at the beginning of the procurement crisis.
Lack costs growth
Whether microchips, plastics or packaging: According to a study, the lack of preliminary products from abroad is expensive for German industry.
From the beginning of 2021 to mid-2022, goods worth almost 64 billion euros could not be manufactured due to supply bottlenecks, according to a study by the institute for macroeconomics and business cycle research (IMK), which is close to the trade unions.
German gross domestic product could have been 1.2 percent higher at the end of 2021 and 1.5 percent higher in mid-2022 if all new orders could have been processed.
"These numbers underpin the need to prioritize supply chain resilience at the expense of cost efficiency in the future," the researchers write.
One reason for the problems is the corona crisis.
Due to recurring lockdowns in China - the most important German trading partner - many urgently needed parts could not be delivered or could only be delivered with a considerable delay.
Another barometer shows how fragile the situation is at the moment.
Because a significant drop in container handling at international ports signals a noticeable slowdown in the global economy.
The corresponding barometer fell by 3.4 to 120.8 points in October, as reported by the RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and the Institute for Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL).
World economy could slide into recession
"The quite significant decline in container handling in October could indicate the beginning of a weak phase in the global economy in the winter half-year," said RWI Economic Director Torsten Schmidt.
»The sharp rise in energy prices is affecting production worldwide and is now likely to have an impact on world trade as well.«
Since international trade is mainly carried out by seagoing vessel, container handling allows reliable conclusions to be drawn about world trade.
A third of the global economy is likely to slide into recession by 2023, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts.
Deutsche Bank puts the probability of recession in Europe at 70 percent and in the USA at 80 percent.
The Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) has therefore recently been pessimistic about the prospects for Germany, the European export champion.
He expects exports to fall by two percent in the coming year.
This means that the German export economy will earn more than 70 billion euros less abroad in 2023.
Labor market stable, inflation falling
There is positive news for Germany, at least from the labor market and inflation data.
The decline in unemployment was somewhat weaker than usual for November.
But overall the labor market is stable, according to the Federal Employment Agency.
In addition, inflation in Germany weakened slightly in November.
Consumer prices increased by 10 percent compared to the same month last year.
In October, the annual inflation rate was 10.4 percent.
In the euro zone, too, inflation fell again for the first time since the summer of last year and was 10 percent in November compared to the same month last year.
mmq/Reuters/dpa
