Enlarge image
Shopping mile in Neuss
Photo: Michael Gstettenbauer / imago images / Michael Gstettenbauer
According to calculations, there will be around four million more people of retirement age in Germany by 2035 than at present.
The number of people over the age of 67 is expected to increase from 16.4 million in 2021 to at least 20 million by 2035.
This is the result of the population projection presented by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) on Friday in Berlin.
"By then, every fourth person will probably be of senior age," said Karsten Lummer, head of the population department at Destatis.
An increase can also be observed among those aged 80 and over, albeit in a different chronological order.
»The number of very old people will remain almost constant at six million until the early 2030s.
After that, it will tend to increase and will be between eight and ten million people in 2070,” said Lummer.
This could double the proportion of these people in Germany from the current seven percent to 14 percent.
"The future development of the number of people over 80 means that the demographically determined need for care will increase particularly sharply between 2035 and 2050," said Lummer.
Germany will have 75 to 90 million citizens in 2070
Above all, this development is relevant for large parts of the social security systems.
This is how the statutory pension insurance works using the so-called allocation method: the pension payments to the current generation of pensioners are financed by the contributions of current employees.
Due to demographic change, however, there are more and more pension recipients for fewer and fewer contributors.
In addition to the aging, high-birth-rate “baby boomer generation”, immigration in particular will be decisive for population development in Germany in the coming years, Destatis said.
The experts therefore calculated various scenarios for the entire population.
“Therefore, by 2070, both an increase to up to 90 million with strong immigration and stagnation or a decline to 75 million with low immigration is possible,” said Lummer.