The measures taken by the West against Russian oil have sunk its price in its first week in force.
Although the cap imposed is 60 dollars per barrel to prevent the Kremlin from financing its war machine, its price has plummeted and does not reach 44 dollars, more than 25% below the limit that was imposed for its sale.
The reason: Russia needs to find alternative clients to the European Union, until now one of the main importers in Moscow and which has decided not to buy more Russian crude by sea, at the same time that its Asian partners ask for discounts because they already have other suppliers. .
A barrel of Urals oil was trading in November at an average cost of $78.3, according to the Russian Economy Ministry.
After confirming the application of these sanctions, its value began to plummet to 47.3 dollars per unit on December 7, according to data from the firm Argus Media extracted by Forbes.
That is, 39.5% less than what it was worth before the embargo and a 21% discount on its maximum theoretical price.
Other estimates, those of the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance, are relatively more benign and place its price at around 52 dollars.
The export of oil is key for the Kremlin.
Their budgets depend more on oil than on gas, and for the next year they balanced their accounts with a barrel at 70.1 dollars on average.
In addition, most of its main clients are now rivals: of the 426 million tons it exported a year, 227 million were destined for Europe, 100 million for China and 30 million for the US, according to the Bruegel analysis center.
However, the community block approved on December 2 to impose a limit of 60 dollars for the barrels that Russia transports by sea, approximately two thirds of all that it exports to Europe.
The Group of Seven (G7), Australia and Norway joined this initiative, and the punishment was reinforced with the threat of sanctions against insurers that cover oil tankers that transport that cargo at higher prices.
The P&I club, the cartel of maritime insurers that covers more than 90% of the ships on the planet, is based in London.
Even Turkey, so far very soft in allowing goods to be smuggled into Russia, has started to require ships crossing the Bosphorus to show that they have all valid documents.
The price of another Russian barrel, the ESPO, has not noticed this embargo because the supply of this crude extracted from Siberia is directed through pipelines to China and other Pacific countries.
With a minority weight in Russian exports, its price was around 68.7 dollars, even so below the 76 dollars that Brent was worth.
Putin: "We don't care"
Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke this Friday about the new sanctions that have hit the Russian waterline.
“The proposed ceiling is equivalent to the prices at which we sell today.
To be honest, we don't care, we also offer discounts to many partners," the president said during the Eurasian Economic Council in the Kyrgyz capital, Bishkek.
The Russian leader announced that the Kremlin's response will be known with the publication of a decree "in the coming days."
"Don't worry about budgets," Putin told reporters before predicting that the cap on Russian oil will distort the market and cause prices to soar in the future.
“We will not sell to the countries that make these decisions.
We will even think about the possibility, and I say that it is not a decision for now, to cut production if necessary," Putin warned.
These sanctions open a new chapter in which even the harmony with the cartel of the oil-producing countries could falter.
“We have an agreement with OPEC+ on the production target, we will think about it,” Putin stressed.
For now, the cartel has decided to keep its oil supply to the market, although everyone looks out for their interests.
Venezuela has just signed an agreement with the US company Chevron, and at the end of November, just after the White House pardoned the Crown Prince for the murder of Khashoggi, Saudi Arabia had to publicly deny US reports that it could soon increase its production in half a million additional barrels.
