Iranian warship.
The long arm of the Ayatollah regime (Photo: AP)
Two Iranian warships, the IRIS Makran launcher and the IRIS Dena frigate appeared near the border of Australia's economic waters, 200 miles beyond the exclusive 12 miles from the coast, on a mission to test the ability of the Iranian Navy in long-distance sailing, this time a journey around the globe.
The Iranian warships are now on their way to cross the Pacific Ocean, passing near the islands of French Polynesia.
The Iranians want to show the West, the US and Israel in particular, that they are not afraid of the sanctions that the US imposed on them during the time of the previous American President Donald Trump, after he withdrew from the nuclear agreement of the major powers with Iran.
Trump's sanctions are still in effect, a new agreement on the nuclear issue is not in sight, and this situation leads the Iranians to accelerate the development of nuclear weapons.
At the same time, the Iranians recognize suicide drones for use by Russia in its war in Ukraine, a war that will mark one year in six weeks.
Fighting the Russians, but not only thinking about Ukraine but also about the price of oil.
Joe Biden, President of the USA (Photo: screenshot, Twitter)
Emirati in the service of Iran
Trump's sanctions resulted in Iranian oil exports falling from 2.7 million barrels per day at the beginning of 2018 to 0.5 million barrels per day in May 2019. In recent months, oil exports increased to a rate of 0.81-1.2 million barrels per day, mainly to China and Syria.
Venezuela and the United Arab Emirates also receive Iranian oil in order to export it again.
Yes, the Emirates from the Abraham agreements export oil to Asia, bypassing sanctions.
After the West failed to crush the Russian economy by removing the banking system of the Russian Federation from the massive international payments and clearing system, SWIFT (SWIFT, the lifeblood of the global economy, carries out 5 billion international financial operations per year between most countries in the world), the American government together with the seven countries decided The richest in the world and Australia to limit the purchase price of a barrel of Russian oil to 60 dollars.
But the Russians do not surrender.
It is true that the public in Russia suffers from increasing poverty, but the delivery of soldiers to the front continues, there is no information on the number of casualties of the Russian army.
The Russians have also moved to an international payment system that bypasses the West by forcing buyers of Russian oil to pay in rubles as well as by increasing the purchase of gold as an alternative to hoarding foreign exchange, away from the American dollar that dominates the world for about two-thirds of international activity, which the Americans can get their hands on at any moment. This is the reason why a price Gold is rising in a period of rising interest rates in the world, contrary to what is written in the economics books.
The American administration is indeed fighting the Russians by increasing the shipment of anti-tank weapons to Ukraine, this openly. But the administration of President Biden is also looking at the residual profit that the American economy will have from limiting the price of Russian oil.
A drop in the international price of oil
will reduce the rate of inflation in the US. The American economy is very sensitive to the price of refueling vehicles, which remains the main source of power for the American car.
These days, you will increase the trend towards a reduction in the currently collapsing sea transport prices as well as a decrease in the prices of goods in the world. In the future, the increase in international trade, which has been severely affected this year due to the world's entry into an economic slowdown and some countries into recession (such as Germany and Great Britain, two of the richest countries in 7G) a decrease in the rate of increase of an index Consumer prices in the US in the coming months will allow the central bank of the US, the Fed, to significantly slow down the increase in interest rates, which reached 4.32%. In
practice, the interest rate imposed on businesses in the US is higher than the official increase in interest,Because of a decrease in the credit volume of the American banking system and a more drastic increase in the commercial interest rate for the economy systems.
If everything goes well, according to the secret plan of the American administration to attack Russia and hit Iran, which is increasingly becoming an ally of the Russians - this will also lead to a reduction in inflation.
In this hidden scenario, the Fed could start reducing interest rates in 2024 after interest rates (even earlier) qualify this year for 5.1% or more, according to an estimate.
So the year 2024, which is the year of the presidential elections in the USA, will look much better for the American citizen.
The same applies to the capital and financial market which will be able to flourish, after the Americans and the whole world were hit in 2022 with a force that has not been equaled since 2008. The flourishing of the markets and the renewal of the feeling of wealth in 2024 could be like a magic wand in the hands of the Democratic Party and President Biden, or for another candidate of the party - and renew the Democratic presidency in the White House, on January 20, 2025.
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A time of emergency will provide Gantz with the justification to join the Netanyahu government, who needs peace to deal with the Iranian threat without rejuvenating elements in his government (Photo: Yanon Yathach)
Just because of the wind
For the time being, what helps the drop in oil prices in the world are the slowdown and recession in the West and the real slowdown in China, which cause a drop in energy demand.
Temporarily, as of now, even the winter weather in Europe, even though it started with a cold wave, is relatively not difficult.
That's why electricity rates in Europe have been dropping drastically in recent weeks, contrary to what was observed just a few weeks ago.
It is possible that what could disrupt the Americans' world-embracing secret plan is the Chinese's tremendous decision to move from a policy of closures and restrictions, which severely damaged economic activity in terms of output and public motivation, to a policy of opening all markets and economic activity and services of all kinds without restriction, in order to return the economy to growth.
The Chinese simply cannot believe that their mighty economy, which has worked wonders for half a century, has disappeared.
According to estimates, the GDP increased in 2022 by only 2.7%, half of the forecast and much less than the demand of the Chinese authorities and the Chinese Communist Party which has been resurrected in recent years. The International Monetary Fund predicts that this year's growth of the Chinese economy will be 4.3%. China is not waiting long and has started At the same time carry out a tremendous monetary expansion, as it pours hundreds of billions of dollars, in local currency, into the economic system through the banking system, including mortgages at a very discounted price to stabilize the collapsed residential construction industry.
If China succeeds in the task of resuming growth to high levels, this means that Chinese demand for oil will return and rise, which could disrupt the American plan to limit the price of oil in international markets.
In order to succeed in this, more money from the central bank is not enough.
The Chinese will be forced to invest in and restore the health system, to optimize the hospital system, shamelessly, also with help from the West regarding the Corona vaccine, so that the Corona replacements will not be harmed in their ability to return to full work, to consumption, to production and to a renewed increase in exports to the whole world.
Of course, the Israeli economy will also benefit as a result of the moves of the powerful Western countries.
Cheaper oil will halve inflation in Israel, that is, it will make it possible to reduce the inflation rate within two years towards 2%, the mid-term goal of the Israeli governments, as well as limit the scope of interest rate increases in the next two years, thus increasing the rate of activity of the Israeli economy, today one of the strongest in the world - if Not the strongest in the world.
The economic improvement in Israel in a year (and beyond), can preserve Benjamin Netanyahu's rule and prevent early elections, at least in the next two years.
Netanyahu will be able to return to his main occupation in recent years, beyond the needs of the interior, the ultra-Orthodox, the Messianic and the short-sighted militants, and reevaluate how to deal with the Iranian threat that has not expired.
If, God forbid, there is a security crisis, it is better that it happens as early as possible, so that it is possible to act utilitarianly, without the Christians.
In the event of a real emergency, the leader of the "state camp", Benny Gantz, will be allowed to join the Netanyahu government and dilute the power of the extremists in his government, who have not heard of the need to take into account the opinion of the nations of the world, and especially the United States for our support.
The low amount that Iran charges for its oil, due to the sanctions, reduces its ability to finance terrorism (Photo: ShutterStock)
Sea in Balgan
Israel indirectly benefits from the international process led by the Americans.
The scope of Iran's oil exports is still lower than the potential it had before the imposition of sanctions.
Falling oil receipts reduce the sources of funding for the Iranian war machine spread from Syria and Lebanon to Yemen.
Russia's presence in Syria is also decreasing due to difficulties in Ukraine, which increases Israel's scope for action, according to foreign sources, in order to prevent Iranian entrenchment in Syria and Lebanon.
The low oil price that the Americans indirectly provide to Israel is critical for Israel vis-à-vis Iran. is growing economically and with a continuity that no country in the world can match.
Israel's achievements include, among others;
Zero budget deficit, huge surplus in the current account, very low debt to GDP, low employment rate, handsome tax collection not only from the real estate sector. A strong Israeli economy is essential for the Day of Judgment so that it will be possible to burden it with expenses, as we managed to burden it with expenses of 180 billion A shekel for the war against the corona virus, just because the economy is rich, was (and still is) at its best.
Israel does not have long-term logistics capabilities, which require refueling fighter jets over vast distances using flying tankers, which the Americans have not yet provided us with. The Israeli alternative to refueling planes, for now, is the use of organizations Its intelligence to thwart Iranian progress in the nuclear field and the attempt to surround Israel with more accurate missiles in huge quantities.
On the other side of the field, the Iranians, for their part, hold annual naval exercises with China and Russia.
Until the fateful military confrontation with Iran, the Iranian warships will have time to go around the world and return to their base in one of the naval ports in the Indian Ocean or in one of the Revolutionary Guards' naval ports to the north, beyond the Gulf of Hormuz.
They will do this to prove to Israel that Iran also has long-term arms.
Admittedly not aerial, but naval.
Of money
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Joe Biden
Benjamin Netanyahu
Iran
