Although in the Government they have celebrated that last year the goal of accumulation of reserves agreed with the Fund was met,
the concern of the market for the coffers of the Central is growing
in a few months where the
debt maturities in dollars are high
and are added to the demand of companies and savers in the market, and in a context where the entry of foreign currency is
highly compromised, due to the impact of the drought in the countryside.
Sources close to the Ministry of Economy conjecture that a new soybean dollar is likely.
"In August we had almost negative net reserves.
We closed the year with more than US$ 8,000 million and we have also expanded and activated the swap with China
. We are going to start importing to pay for them in renminbi based on the agreement between the President Xi Jinping and President Fernández in the G7," said Economy Minister Sergio Massa in an interview published by the site El Cohete a la Luna this Sunday.
Although the net reserves are no longer negative, there is a concern shared by both government officials and City economists: whether these levels are
enough to maintain activity and meet the different payments
, at the beginning of the year where it is estimated that the income of dollars from the harvest will be between
US$4,000 and US$9,000 million less this year than what was registered in 2022.
In this way, the exchange current account would go from having a
surplus of US$ 4,000 million in 2022, to closing with a red of US$ 5,000 million in 2023.
In line with last year's goal, the Argentine government made a commitment to the IMF to accumulate US$5.5 billion in reserves in the first quarter of 2023. Last week, it made payments, both to the international organization and to the creditors that entered to the debt exchange for some
US$ 2,300 million.
On Friday, according to partial data reported by the BCRA, gross reserves closed at US$43,104 million, a drop of
US$1,300 million compared to the closing of a week ago.
Although debt maturities continue to be moderate compared to those expected from 2024 onwards, their relative weight is high in a context of less inflow of dollars.
"With no other sector that can make up for this lack of supply, in addition to the advancement to 2022 of the settlements that could have been made in 2023 and with the prospect that in the post-electoral period there may be a significant relative price adjustment, which would delay settlement of foreign currency from this and other sectors,
the BCRA's ability to accumulate foreign currency seems extremely challenging
," said Pablo Repetto, from Aurum Valores.
Economist Fernando Baer, from Quantum Finanzas, warned: "Facing what is coming is complex, possibly a
trade off
between minimizing the loss of reserves and slowing down the level of activity."
Among the alternatives to manage the lack of dollars, the idea of new differential exchange rates is gaining strength.
However, Baer warned: "If the magnitude of the estimated export losses due to the drought is validated, it will be difficult to compensate. We will surely
see greater exchange rate volatility."
In the market they do not believe that this year the Government will achieve the goal proposed by the Fund and they bet that it will appeal to an already known formula: more import stocks and new differential exchange rates for different export sectors.
Although new contributions from international organizations that manage to prop up the level of reserves are not ruled out, in a context of lower income, their impact would be less.
Meanwhile, continuing to close the faucet to importers may have greater consequences.
Jorge Vasconcelos, from IERAL, affirmed: "December imports would have already fallen 13% year-on-year. There is no way to count on inputs and parts that allow normal operation of productive activities. And January is giving very bad weather news.
The value harvest in 2023 could be falling by US$9 billion".
look also
Sergio Massa endorsed price control and was crossed by businessmen
Pro-government picketers join Truckers in government price control
