Sergio Massa went from relativizing the damage caused by the drought to admitting it in less than 24 hours.
He finally agreed to the claim of the field entities that demanded to see the minister instead of the secretary of the area, José Bahillo.
The minister promised to receive them this week.
In a report with Horacio Verbitsky, broadcast on Sunday morning, Massa pointed out:
“During the last quarter, the proposal was that due to the impact of the drought, the wheat harvest was going to be between 9 and 11 million tons.
The official SISA accreditation record shows 14.7 million tons, which is less than what could have been a good harvest, but it is not the catastrophe that was feared”.
And he added: "Regarding the drought, we estimate that the impact of the rain from last weekend until the 21st will give us enough soil moisture to have a good harvest throughout the year."
But hours later he pointed out in statements to Infobae:
"We are going to convene the Liaison Table to propose a follow-up in the next 90 days
, region by region, looking at the satellite maps of rainfall, the INTA satellite maps of soil moisture, sector by sector, and comparing the drop in profitability 2022 against 2023. Beyond the issue of exports, the first thing to look at is the damage to Argentine producers”.
According to the president of Coninagro, Elbio Laucirica, 80% of the 19 productions are in a critical situation.
Coninagro brings together the main cooperatives that are a thermometer not only for the production of the core zone but also for regional economies.
According to the latest report of the Information System on Droughts for the South of South America, the area of the Argentine territory affected by drought or in conditions of water stress reached 54.48%
.
The situation affects a large part of the center and north of the agricultural area and, to a lesser extent, the west.
The Grain Exchange of Buenos Aires pointed out that the agricultural areas where the drought affects between 65% and 85% of the territory are the north of Buenos Aires, all of Santa Fe, Entre Ríos and Chaco, central south of Córdoba, central-east of Formosa and east of Santiago del Estero.
So far, wheat is the crop hardest hit by the drought.
The harvest that ended at Christmas yielded the 14.7 million tons mentioned by Massa
, far from the 21 million last year.
Another affected winter crop was barley, whose harvest of 3.8 million tons was 27% less than last season.
The Rosario Grain Exchange considers 12 million tons of soybeans to be lost and it is estimated that it will be
"the third worst Argentine harvest in the last 15 years," he
said.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange outlined different possible scenarios in case the drought continues or the rains resume.
In the worst case with severe drought, soybeans would fall from the 48 million tons forecast when planting began in October, to 35.5 million.
In the case of corn, from 50 million to 37.8 million and in sunflower from 3.9 million to 3.5 million.
The severe drought has had an impact on a drop of almost 2% in agricultural GDP and a 0.6% drop in tax collection due to a drop in export volumes and lower collection of withholdings.
And he calculated that in terms of foreign exchange, US$ 14.1 billion less would be received than last year.
