The rise of the blue dollar remains firm.
This Tuesday it rose eight pesos and closed at
, a new nominal record for the informal price.
On a day that is also hot for the exchange rate, the Central Bank ended its buying streak and sold
It is the first time in the year that the monetary authority goes out to sell.
So far in January, the blue has already accumulated
a rise of 32 pesos,
equivalent to an 8% rise, which makes it the dollar that increases the fastest in the entire range of exchange rates in Argentina.
With this price, the informal was just one peso below the Qatari dollar, until now the most expensive on the market with a price of
The price difference between the blue and the Qatar dollar was what fueled the rise in the informal.
The distance between these dollars reached 40 pesos a month ago and in the middle of summer
It encouraged Argentines who travel outside the country to buy in the informal market rather than pay their expenses with a card
, thus reducing the cost of vacations.
Analysts indicate that the blue dollar has the MEP dollar or stock market dollar as its floor, today at
while the Qatar dollar is the ceiling.
That is why the reduction of the gap makes the Government hope that the escalation of the blue will be cut, since January would be the month with the greatest demand.
"Those who buy to speculate that it will continue to rise
are going to be left hanging from the brush,"
they said at the Palacio de Hacienda.
The analysts mark other reasons that explain the jump of the blue.
The economist Salvador Di Stéfano specified that the cause of the rise is that
"there is less supply because tourists no longer use this market, they pay by card at a similar price
This last point refers to foreigners who visit Argentina and who, until a month ago, it was convenient for them to bring dollars and exchange them in the informal market, since the exchange rate obtained was practically double the price they were given if they paid by card.
The main problem with this operation was that, being illegal, the dollars that foreigners brought in did not go through the Central Bank.
To resolve the issue, at the beginning of December the dollar was launched for foreign tourists, which allows them to pay by card and get the MEP dollar exchange rate.
That reduced the offer on the blue.
While stocks and bonds maintained the positive streak of recent days, financial dollars were also in turmoil.
Cash with liqui, the dollar used by companies, rose 1.9% to
In contrast, the MEP dollar fell slightly by 0.6% to
From Aurum Valores they stated that throughout the day the MEP dollar "oscillated around $350 with ups and downs in the 346/353 range. In the last hour strong sales against pesos and purchases against dollars made it drop almost $10"
These variations encourage the versions that there was intervention by official entities to increase the offer and make the MEP go down
However, the strong gap between the blue and the informal plays in favor of the rise in prices of the informal.
This is because an "
" is generated : for every 1000 dollars that are bought in the MEP and sold in the blue
-at $374, which is the price of the buying tip-
allows a profit of $32,000 to be achieved.
Although the loop is tempting, it means taking money from the legal circuit and passing it on to the informal circuit, with the risks that this entails
"The renewed pressures on financial and free dollars spread, and thus the usual search for coverage in an election year and the next drop in the demand for money - together with monetary expansion - that tend to accentuate the process are evident. dollarization," said economist Gustavo Ber.
For Christian Buteler, the exchange rate tension is also a consequence of the strong monetary issue.
"The BCRA issued
$1.2 trillion in December,
mainly for the soybean 2 dollar. Part of those pesos, as happened in September with the soybean 1 dollar,
went to the dollar.
They persist in trying to control prices, whether for the dollar or the products, when the only thing they should control is the amount of pesos they issue"
In this heated environment, the Central Bank had to go out and sell.
US$ 23 million left him.
This ended the buying streak that had allowed him to accumulate US$ 285 million in the month.
Now that favorable balance has been reduced to
US$ 262 million.
After the end of the soybean dollar 2 on December 30, the liquidations of the agricultural sector stopped.
In the eleven rounds that took place in January, US$767 million
, half of what was settled in the same period of 2022
This lower offer puts the focus back on the difficulties that the Central will have this year in the midst of the drought that will reduce the supply of foreign currency.
And it leaves the door open for a $3 soybean to emerge when the heavy crop begins in March.
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