Inflation, which had slowed slightly in the last two months, is at
risk of picking up again in January
.
For now, according to analysts,
it will be much higher than that of December
(5.1%) and some forecasts already place it
above 6% per month.
Last year the highest point in terms of inflation occurred between
July (7.4%) and October (6.3%)
.
Then, in November, between the price agreements and the expectation of the new management of Sergio Massa in Economy, the variable "fell" to 4.9%.
In December it rebounded to 5.1%.
However, in the last few hours,
the new measures to contain exchange rate pressure
(the repurchase of debt securities in dollars)
would also be aimed at cooling the price needle that officials began to envision in a new upward trend.
Already, the possibility of extending the Fair Prices agreement in supermarkets that expires at the end of February, is among the alibis to corset the price index.
However, it seems not to be enough.
A little after the first month of the year has elapsed,
economists' measurements warn that January would bring an average price rise of 5.5% or 6%,
according to preliminary estimates.
From
Equilibra,
the economist
Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina
pointed out: "we still do not have measurements, but our projection is
a little higher than December
due to the strong increases implemented in regulated and
seasonal prices, since January is usually a difficult month
in this item.” “We project a rise in the month of around
5.5%
,” said the analyst.
Fausto Spotorno,
economist from the Ferreres & Asociados study, points out that the last weeks measured gave an increase of 3.9%.
Within this result, food and beverages registered an average increase of 4.1%.
According to the analyst, from this base,
the forecast is that January ends with a rise close to 5%, he estimated.
Also for the Eco Go
consultancy ,
food
and beverages
will boost the index at a monthly rate of 4.4%, if a variation of 0.8% is applied for the remaining weeks of the month.
However, other items have a special impact on inflation for the month:
increases in prepaid (6.5%), fuel (2%), and gas, electricity and water rates (14.1%, 19.6% and 20.1% respectively), domestic service (6.5%), bus and train fares in AMBA (between 20% and 70% depending on the service
), among others.
With this panorama, the projection of the general level of inflation in January is
5.4%,
according to Eco Go.
In other words, "0.4 percentage points above what was expected the previous week due to a more precise survey of some items included and a slightly lower-than-estimated record of inflation in food," said Sebastian Menescaldi, economist at the consultancy.
One of the keys to determine the upward trend of inflation is the behavior of meat,
a basic input of the basket, of weight in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) used to measure inflation.
Throughout last year, this item rose 62.4%, that is, below general inflation, which was 94.8%.
According to the last week surveyed by EcoGo, "meats experienced a rise of 0.7% and
continue to push the index downward
.
"In the case of beef, semi-prepared meats (2.2%) drove the rise, which reached 0.4%. Chicken showed an increase of 1.2%, while fish and cold cuts experienced variations of 0.1% and 1.5% respectively", he pointed out in his latest report.
According to the estimates of the Fundación Libertad y Progreso, “
in the first 15 days of the year, prices increased again.
Consequently, inflation for the last moving month (last four weeks) stands at
5.9%
.
However, taking into account the dynamics of the last few weeks, January would close at
6.3% - the highest data since October”
, highlighted the group.
According to Emilio Prado, one of his economists, "the dynamics of prices in the first half of January leads to a new acceleration that will hinder Massa's goal of reaching April with inflation "with a three ahead," he said.
.In addition, “with an excessive issuance of pesos that impacts the purchasing power of the currency and a persistent uncorrected deficit bias (despite the attempts at a 'fiscal order'),
the price trend will continue to be upward
as expected they reflect the expectations of the agents consulted by the Central Bank (REM), with projections of 98% per year for this year," he said.
