A few days after the end of January, the Government already has indications that inflation this January is lucky to be higher than that of December.
The consultants are considering the possibility that it registers a rise of
5.5% or 6%,
thus distorting the slowdown trend proposed by Sergio Massa's management.
For this reason, before the end of the current Fair Prices program, which froze the prices of some 2,000 mass consumption products, the Secretary of Commerce
tries to prevent more abrupt rises in the rest of the products that have a path of rises of the order of 4%.
He proposes to
the companies that this adjustment be 3.2% instead of 4%.
And also advance in the definition of the new basket of frozen prices that will replace the one that expires on February 28.
The meetings have just begun and promise to be arduous, according to the companies.
The official will to corset inflation occurs, not only due to the context of going through an election year, but also due to the need for unions to
sign annual parities within a margin of 60%,
as provided for in the 2023 Budget on inflation.
From the Secretary of Commerce they pointed out that “there have already been meetings with companies and supermarkets.
They come in handy," described a source.
On the other hand, the representatives of the industry who attend the one-on-one meetings with the secretary, Matias Tombolini, admit that
the toughest fight is yet to come: the recomposition of the prices of frozen products for four months.
"Since November we already have almost 11 points of inflation and we still don't know how much it will be in January and February, at least half of what there was in the four-month period, they have to give us," said the director of a major food industry.
From Commerce they point out that "what is being negotiated are the terms of the new agreement when the current one expires, which is for 120 days. Perhaps it will be brought forward a couple of weeks and
the idea is that this path be 3.2% instead of the 4% in the rest of the products that are not frozen.
Regarding the new Fair Prices basket, there will be another 2,000 products that will be frozen that
may be the same or may change.
Surely there will be a rotation: frozen products will come out and go to the price path and some that are in the path will be inside the frozen ones.
What is not known is the percentage increase that those products that enter the new Fair Prices agreement will have”, highlighted the official sources.
In the same sense, a supermarket source pointed out: "the companies are being given the possibility of
changing the products within Fair Prices,
without altering the quality of the basket," he said.
And she also stated that the discussions that
"normally would take place in March, are being brought forward to implement them as soon as possible,"
she opined.
In one of the industries with weight in mass consumption products that is in permanent dialogue with officials, they confirmed: "we had a first meeting and the 4X3 scheme was proposed to us," explained the source, referring to the fact that the Government stated that the increases foreseen by outside of Fair Prices,
they will increase a general 3.2% until May or June, instead of 4% as is now stipulated.
The current Fair Pricing program was launched in November and expires at the end of February.
But
the inflationary pressure used so far by the consultancies is motivating officials to "get ahead" in containing the increases
so that the inflation data for February shows a slowdown again, as happened in December when the Consumer Price Index (CPI ) increased 4.9%.
“For now it was a very general meeting.
Now you have to review in detail from when and what products.
We are waiting for more definitions.
For now, everything is very much up in the air”, they trusted another of the leading food companies.
About how they took the proposal, the companies point out
the delays they have been having due to the increase in costs.
"We don't have a lot of margin, with inflation above 4% per month, our production costs exert significant pressure," another businessman explained.
"We will see how the talks continue but it is difficult," he acknowledged.
