The latest measures to contain the dollar generated
unexpected effects
.
First, it was the repurchase of public debt in the midst of the rise in bonds and the subsequent opening of an investigation to clear up doubts about possible leaks.
And now a decision by the Central Bank to absorb pesos
from short-term investments
is in the sights of the banks .
The financial sector was surprised this Monday by the
rise in the 1-day repo rate
for money placed by the Common Investment Funds (FCI), which
went from 54% to 68.4% (98.1% rate annual effective)
.
With this improvement, the BCRA improved the performance of FCIs and made the rates offered by banks less attractive through remunerated checking accounts (63.6%) and fixed terms (66.5%).
The measure immediately generated a
climate of confusion in the
financial city, where alarms went off and calls to the authorities multiplied.
"With this rate increase,
the banks lose funding
because now it is more convenient to skip and go directly to the Central Bank, they should back down," warned a banker, upset with the decision.
At this time, the fear is that there will be a
"migration" of very short-term funds from
companies and individuals from banks to the BCRA, movements that have begun to be reflected in official data.
According to the agency, the stock of passive Passes placed at FCI
went from $1.2 billion last Friday to a record $445 billion this Tuesday.
"A priori, the most obvious is a
blow to the profitability of the banks
due to the drop in intermediation. The explanation is very simple. Given that the FCIs now have a much lower cost when it comes to going directly to repos, the banks see their business deteriorate, especially when it comes to offering remunerated accounts," said PPI.
The rise in rates generated debate in the entity headed by Miguel Pesce.
At Reconquista 266, they denied the rumors of a reversal, but in the last hours the director would have held conversations with some bankers and would have suggested some correction.
"It looks like there will be a reversal, but not quite," said another banker.
Basically, the objective of the measure was to raise the surety rate, a credit tool used by operators and investors to finance their transactions.
In this way,
it was sought to make the financing of the purchase of financial dollars more expensive
.
"That was given and it was done so that it costs more to take credit to buy CCL," they said in an official dispatch.
In the market, however, it was read as a "strong blow" to the banks.
Consulting firm 1816
predicted a significant rise in the average rate of placements in pesos
and that "banks will lose many deposits and much profitability" due to the migration of FCI funds -today about $3.5 trillion- to the Central Bank.
Pesce's move opened, on the other hand, an unforeseen front with the Finance Secretariat, headed by Eduardo Setti.
The same entities that were key in the last two debt swaps and the renewal of maturities have already warned that the loss of liquidity
will reduce the margin to invest in Treasury bonds.
The perception is that it will no longer be so beneficial to buy a bill at a discount in March at an effective rate of 103%, compared to a yield of 98.05% for the 1-day pass.
In this context, the Government would be forced to
improve
bond rates to attract the big players for the debt tender this Friday.
"You get a business from the banks through financial intermediation, which is very important for the Treasury, the bank is the main ally of debt refinancing this year and this creates uncertainty," explained Pedro Siaba Serrate, from PPI.
