Consumer sentiment improved in January.
There was an increase in confidence of
7.3% compared to December, although it remained 4.4% below last year
, according to the index prepared every month by the Finance Research Center of the University's Business School. Say Tella.
This is an indicator that probes
how the personal economic situation
of consumers is both currently and compared to a year ago;
How do you think
the economic situation of the country
will be in the short and medium term and what is
your predisposition towards the purchase of durable goods,
among other questions.
In this case, the surveys -by the consulting firm Poliarquía- were carried out between January 2 and 12.
In other words, it is the first confidence measurement after the Argentine triumph in the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. Also, the December measurement, before the National Team got its pass to the semifinals, was positive.
However,
the jump in the first month of 2023 was more important.
What factors could influence for and against the mood of consumers?
A slight perception of improvement in the economy, which includes the
slowdown in inflation
since November;
the Christmas bonus and the bonuses that were collected at the end of the year and, why not, the blows of World Cup joy affected the rise of the indicator, according to the analysts consulted.
On the other hand, there is a feeling that
inflation conditions all types of projects:
people feel that they must take the weight off their shoulders
and are oriented towards more instantaneous consumption such as going out to restaurants or weekend getaways, according to a recent investigation. D'Alessio Irol survey on Social and Political Humor.
Along the same lines, according to the Centro de Estudios Económicos Argentina XXI, the rise in consumption "is explained by the
collapse in the demand for money
: the high inflation exhibited by the economy makes people decide to part with the pesos in exchange for goods and services, after all,
that is worth more today than tomorrow”
, he pointed out in his latest report.
Sebastián Auguste, director of the UTDT Finance Research Center, details that “in January all the sub-indices of the Confidence Index (ICC) showed positive monthly variations compared to the previous month, such as the personal situation, which rose 2.1%;
the macroeconomic situation, 10.8%
and the willingness to purchase durable goods such as cars, motorcycles and real estate, which rose 9.7%”.
"If we analyze in detail the component that measures the perception of those surveyed regarding
their evaluated personal situation compared to the past
(in the short term of one year) it
fell 4.2%
, and the component that measures the expectations of how it will be the personal situation going forward (expectations to one year) increased 6.6%, always with respect to last month”, detailed the Di Tella report.
As for the sub-index that measures short and medium-term expectations of consumers regarding
the macroeconomic situation
, it showed a considerable increase (10.8%) compared to the measurement of the previous month.
Analyzing in detail, short-term macroeconomic expectations improved by 16.6%, and long-term by 7.8%,” the study specified.
In this regard, Damián Di Pace, an analyst at the Focus Market consultancy, points out that the rise in consumer confidence is surely linked to the
joint agreements
reached and the fact that
"November and December were the only two months in which wages registered private companies and also public companies beat inflation
," he says.
“In December,
people received bonuses, bonuses or some kind of recomposition and, on the other hand, it would seem that inflation was parked between 5 and 6%
per month.
Not as the Government claims between 3 and 4, but further from the 6 or 7% that we had a few months ago, ”he explained about the greater optimism of consumers.
Regarding the mood of consumers at the regional level, "positive variations were found for the confidence index in two of the three regions: it
fell 1.2% in the Federal Capital, increased 6.1% in the Interior, and rose 10, 8% in Greater Buenos Aires”,
according to the work of the UTDT.
Finally, according to the same study, it can be inferred that consumers perceive
a future that is projected better than the present.
Thus, perceptions regarding short-term conditions, or long-term expectations, which the report calls
"Present Conditions and Future Expectations," rose 4.4% and 9.2%
respectively, in January, compared to the indexes of the last month.
NE
look also
Consumer confidence rises for the first time since January
Consumer confidence sinks: falls 11.1% and reaches the lowest level in 13 months
