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High inflation rate expected again – statistical office postpones inflation data


According to economists, the burden on German consumers from inflation increased significantly again in January. However, the Federal Statistical Office has postponed the publication of the new figures at short notice.

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Groceries in the supermarket: In addition to energy, they have recently become particularly expensive


Sven Hoppe / dpa

Technical breakdown: The Federal Statistical Office in Wiesbaden has postponed the publication of data on German inflation in January, which was planned for this Tuesday.

The notification could not be published on the planned date due to a technical problem in the data preparation, the office said.

Several state statistical offices – on whose results the first nationwide estimate is based – had previously postponed publication.

The authorities in North Rhine-Westphalia, Baden-Württemberg and Saxony cited the conversion of the data series to the new base year 2020 as the reason. The statisticians regularly make such revisions in order to take new developments in the shopping basket into account.

Inflation rate soon back in double digits?

Even without official figures, it is already becoming apparent that the burden on German consumers from inflation increased significantly in January.

According to a survey of economists from twelve banks, consumer prices are likely to have risen by 9.2 percent compared to the same month last year.

Some of the economists surveyed even consider it possible that the rate of price increases will return to double digits at the beginning of the year.

"German consumer prices will shoot up significantly in January compared to the previous year," predict the analysts at BayernLB.

They see several reasons for this, including the changed weighting within the basket of goods used to determine the inflation rate.

"Despite the corona pandemic, 2020 was chosen as the new base year, so services, package tours and culture will lose a lot of their weight, while household energy and goods will gain a lot," according to the experts.

"The consequence is likely to be a significantly higher rate of inflation."

In addition, the assumption of the gas and district heating deductions by the federal government had dampened inflation in December.

"A counter-effect is programmed in January," according to BayernLB's experts.

Electricity and gas prices are likely to rise at least to the price level set by the state in the energy price brakes.

In addition, many sellers are particularly fond of using the turn of the year to raise prices.

There should be numbers next week

"In January and February, a slight interim increase is still possible, but after that the trend should be downward over the course of the year," said the scientific director of the Institute for Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Research (IMK), Sebastian Dullien.

For 2023 as a whole, he expects an inflation rate of just over five percent, after 7.9 percent in 2022, the highest value since the founding of the Federal Republic.

"Germany has passed the peak of inflation, and that will increasingly become apparent as the year progresses."

In December, the inflation rate fell to 8.6 percent, after it had been 10.0 percent in November and even reached 10.4 percent in October, the highest level in more than 70 years.

Despite the postponement of the Federal Statistical Office, the European statistical agency Eurostat intends to continue publishing the January figures for price developments in the euro zone on Wednesday.

Eurostat announced that an estimate would be used for Germany.

The development of inflation is a key decision-making criterion for the European Central Bank (ECB).

The Governing Council meets this Thursday for the first interest rate meeting of the year.

The week from February 6th to 10th was named as the new date for the publication of the first estimate of the German inflation figures.


Source: spiegel

All business articles on 2023-01-30

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