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»Positive surprises«: According to the IMF, growth prospects for the global economy are brightening


As recently as autumn, the International Monetary Fund warned of the risk of a global recession. Global crises continue to weigh heavily on the world economy. But now there is also reason for hope.

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Automated container port in the eastern Chinese province of Shandong: According to the IMF, the prospects for the global economy are »less gloomy than assumed in October – this is not least due to developments in China

Photo: Uncredited / dpa

The global economy will cope with the consequences of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine and the continued high inflation somewhat better than initially feared.

This is not least due to the developments in China, according to the updated forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the global economy on Tuesday.

Growth will slow to 2.9 percent this year compared to 2022 (3.4 percent).

But the prospects are "less bleak" than assumed in October, wrote IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.

This is due to "positive surprises" and an "unexpectedly high level of resilience" in many economies, according to the report.

A driver of the global economy could be China's departure from the zero-Covid strategy.

The IMF does not expect the global economy to slip into recession this year – an option that the economists did not rule out in the autumn.

According to Gourinchas, the current forecast could mark a "tipping point" with growth bottoming out while inflation eases.

Should China make faster progress with the vaccination against the corona virus, this would ensure a recovery.

However, the report also lists a number of risks that would result in a worsening of the economic situation: a further worsening of the corona situation in China, an escalation of the Russian war of aggression and a debt crisis due to the strict monetary policy of the central banks.

According to the IMF, GDP in Germany is expected to grow by 0.1 percent this year

In its updated forecast, the IMF calculates:

  • still with global growth of 2.9 percent this year.

    That is 0.2 percentage points more than assumed in October – however, compared to the past two decades, growth is below the “historical average”.

  • Growth of 3.1 percent is expected for 2024.

  • The IMF is forecasting growth of 0.7 percent for the

    euro zone

    this year – growth that is 0.2 percentage points higher than previously assumed.

  • In


    , gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by just 0.1 percent in 2023.

    However, this is an increase of 0.4 percentage points in the estimate.

  • In the coming year, the economy in Germany is then expected to grow by 1.4 percent - that is 0.1 percentage points less than previously expected.

"The forecast for low growth in 2023 reflects the rate hikes by central banks in the fight against inflation - especially in the industrialized countries - as well as the war in Ukraine," the forecast said.

A decline in growth is forecast for around 90 percent of industrialized countries this year.

According to the report, the fact that the global economy is now expected to grow faster than assumed in October is also due to the fact that Europe has coped better than expected with the shocks in the energy sector caused by the war in Ukraine.

Despite severe headwinds, gross domestic product in the third quarter of 2022 was surprisingly strong in numerous economies, including the United States and the euro area.

According to the IMF, the rate hikes by the central banks also had an effect.

There are signs that the tight monetary policy is slowing down inflation.

"But the full effect will probably not be felt before 2024," the forecast continued.

However, around 84 percent of the countries are likely to have lower consumer prices this year than last year.

For 2023, the IMF expects an inflation rate of 6.6 percent worldwide, and in the coming year it should be 4.3 percent.

Nevertheless, it will take a while before price stability returns with an inflation rate of two percent.

In the vast majority of countries, inflation in 2024 will still be above pre-coronavirus levels.


Source: spiegel

All business articles on 2023-01-31

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