After lagging last year, the parallel dollars accelerated in January with
gains of up to 10%.
The increase is
almost double the inflation expected
for the first month of 2023, a figure that the consultants place close to 6% and above the December data.
It also represents the third largest rise since the assumption of Sergio Massa.
In July, after the resignation of Martín Guzmán and his replacement by Silvina Batakis, the
informal sector rose 14%
.
Then, since the landing of Massa, it climbed 2.6% in August.
In September and October, it continued to slow down, with increases of 0.68 and 0.69%.
In November it jumped 8.2%, in December it advanced 10.19% and in
January it rose 10.11%.
The leak of the blue on the other prices forced a series of measures to contain them.
This included the repurchase of debt with a cost of US$ 320 million of reserves since January 18 , as
Clarín
learned .
But its impact was limited: in January, the gap with the wholesaler rose to 103.7%, almost 14 points more than in December.
After rising strongly last week and touching the nominal record of $386, the blue dollar closed Tuesday at $381. The MEP rebounded $1 and reached $354, while the cash with liquidity (CCL) fell $2 to $367. In this way, financial dollars accumulated increases of 6.2 and 8.2% in January.
"What happened in January is because the dollar rose 20 points less than inflation in 2022, the printing of banknotes in December
began to take effect
and the prospects with the drought and a slowing world are not good. Due to a certain relative delay, more pesos and expectations of less abundance of dollars, the exchange rates reacted", explained the economist Jorge Neyro.
One of the factors that influenced the takeoff of the blue with respect to the other prices was the launch of a dollar for non-resident tourists similar to the MEP for consumption on cards.
By this measure,
gross travel and ticket receipts rose 78% in December and totaled US$108 million,
according to official data.
"Card operations stopped being processed through the informal market and went through the official market at the value of the MEP. There
are about US$ 5 million a day
that disappeared from the blue offer in December. That does not change anything for the MEP, but blue yes, it's a supply gap," said Emiliano Anselmi, PPI economist.
After a summer in November and December, the exchange pressures intensified due to the shortage of foreign currency in the midst of a lower sale of agriculture due to the end of the soybean dollar and the drought.
Thus, the Central Bank increased sales and in January it
accumulated a negative balance of US$ 190 million
, a start that has only been registered 3 times in the last 20 years.
Due to the lack of rain, Sergio Massa called the Liaison Table on Tuesday.
Economists estimate that the climate phenomenon will
cut exports by at least US$7 billion.
The government seeks to compensate for the loss of dollars with financing from Brazil and some type of relief from the IMF, but it is also concerned about inflation.
The widening of the exchange rate gap could put additional pressure on prices.
With an official dollar at $187, financial dollars closed January with a gap of between 89 and 96%.
Given the restrictions to access foreign currency, that translated into some imported goods at an exchange rate of up to $270.
"The impact on inflation is diffuse, there is not such a strong correlation. It is possible that the impact will be greater in February because it is fed back, the best that can be hoped for is that the exchange rates rise around inflation," said Neyro.
"The gap gets into inflation expectations this month and
may accelerate price increases for coverage,"
Anselmi said.
The elections and the renewal of debt in pesos also generate uncertainty about the dollar.
"One is what happens in politics as candidates begin to be defined or the results are known. The other is the weights of the local debt market, there the government has an important challenge so that they do not become dollarized," said Alejandro Giacoia , from Ecoviews.
