A few days after knowing the official inflation for January that the consultants estimate with an increase of between 5.5 and 6%,
the month of February begins with an also very important inflationary inertia.
According to analysts who contribute their forecasts to the Central Bank's Survey of Market Expectations (REM), the rise will average 5.7% per month.
In this way, the economic variable of prices complicates the forecasts of Economy Minister Sergio Massa, who planned to reduce inflation to less than 4% by April, especially encouraged by the context of an election year.
However, just as January began to evade these forecasts, also
in February the price variable was boosted beyond what was desired
by the expected increases in
fuel, prepaid and rent.
In addition, to the increases in these goods and services is added the pressure exerted again by
food, led by beef.
According to measurements by the LCG consultancy, food already comes with a rise of 5.5% in the first four weeks of January.
In particular,
the price of meat woke up from the "lethargy" in which it had been since April of last year and
threatens to hit the counters during this month.
It is estimated that for every 10% increase in price, it impacts the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by 0.6%, used to measure inflation.
This is so because meat has a strong impact on the "food and beverage" category, which weighs 23% in the CPI.
With which, after the 30% jump registered by the animals in the Hacienda de Cañuelas market, in recent days,
the increases are already reaching the gondolas
.
Yesterday, the kilo of roast in the supermarkets oscillated between $1,329 and $1,985;
buttock milanesas, between $1,680 and $1,780.
And in the neighborhood butcher shops, the vacuum priced between $1,680 and $2,100 per kilo, depending on the neighborhood.
Among the increases in the month, the greatest impact is expected in
the costs of energy rates,
after the removal of subsidies.
Regarding electricity, residential users included in levels 1 of high income and 3 of medium income, will receive an average increase of 14% in the service on their bills.
For their part, gas bills still have rate increases pending definition.
The increase is for "temporary rate adjustments" requested by the transport companies (TGN and TGS) and gas distributors.
For prepaid, starting in February.
the rise will be 4.91%
for those workers who receive up to six minimum wages.
In the case of affiliates who exceed the announced limit, monthly increases will be applied that will govern according to the Health Cost Index, which as established would be 8.21%.
As for
rents
, they will also have a greater impact than in January on the pockets of tenants.
Those who renew their rental contracts will do so with an annual variation of 87%, according to the latest updated data from the Rental Contracts Index (ICL) prepared by the Central Bank. The ICL is an index that contemplates a mixture, in parts the same, the evolution of inflation and wages.
In the case of
telecommunications, the Government authorized a staggered increase of 14.5% in fixed and mobile telephony, internet, and cable and satellite television services.
It is
planned
to be applied in four installments during the first quarter of the year.
Another of the increases that are added in February is that of domestic workers who will receive the third increase agreed by the National Commission for Work in Private Houses.
That percentage will be 5%, which is added to the 8% in December and the 7% received in January.
In this way, when the remaining 4% is added in March, the 24% agreed in the last month of 2022 will be rounded off.
