The International Monetary Fund projected that Argentina will reach
inflation this year close to 60%
, in line with what the Government proposed in the Budget, while local consultants estimate that it
will be much higher, close to 100%.
In an update of the economic forecasts for Latin America, Fund officials published on Wednesday in a blog the estimated numbers for the region.
The analysis, signed by the experts Gustavo Adler, Nigel Chalk and Anna Ivanova, pointed out that the regional economies remained in fairly good shape last year, with a
rebound after the pandemic
, and despite the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the rises in global interest rates.
Latin America grew by 4% in 2022
Argentina had an expansion of 4.6%,
just above the regional average.
The report notes that
inflation is receding in many countries
because of the "early and determined" efforts of central banks, and also because of lower food and energy prices.
However, the Fund warns that underlying inflation (which excludes food and energy) "remains high" in countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia and Peru (around 8%).
does not mention the Argentine case in detail,
although in the statistical table it states that it closed last year with a
bulky 95.9% inflation, only behind Venezuela (220%).
The Fund then launches the forecasts for this year.
Despite the encouraging signs for 2022, he predicts that “2023 is likely to be a challenging year” for Latin America.
It projects that regional growth will slow to just 2% due to higher interest rates and falling commodity prices.
Growth will also be held back by a slowdown in trading partners, particularly the United States and the euro area.
In addition, the risks of the situation being complicated by derivatives of more restrictive financial conditions than expected and Russia's war in Ukraine dominate, they point out.
, they project
growth of 2% this year
, a significant drop from 4.6% last year.
By 2024 they expect it to remain at 2%.
And in the inflation section, they estimate that it will reach 60%, in line with what is consigned in the Budget for this year, but a figure that many Argentine economists believe
will be exceeded.
In fact, in the last survey of expectations carried out by the Central Bank in December, the consultants speak of 98.4% for this year.
Even a firm forecasts higher inflation and places it at 135.6% (EcoGo).
By 2024, the Fund estimates that prices will slow down to 40%, although the expectations of consultants speak of 75% per year.
In a press conference on Monday, IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas explained that they expected 2% growth this year in Argentina due to a "combination of the slowdown in the global economy and
adjustment policies in the country
, monetary and fiscal, to control the very high inflation".
In addition, the official pointed out the importance of continuing on the path established in the Fund's program: "We believe it is very important that the policy goals of the program with the IMF be achieved, both on the fiscal and monetary sides, which
will help anchor forward
The Fund also highlighted the growing social tensions in the region as a result of poverty, high inflation, uncertainty and food insecurity.
“Finding common ground to carry out sensible economic reforms in an environment of significant social tensions will be an uphill battle,” they noted.
"At the same time, the continued possibility of unrest and political paralysis has the potential to erode confidence and weigh on economic activity."
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