Unexpected explosion of job creations in the United States

It makes you wonder if anyone really understands what's going on in the US job market.

The Labor Department has just estimated net job creation at 517,000 in January, nearly three more than expected.

We anticipated a slowdown in hiring, but the opposite is happening.

Especially if we take into account the favorable revisions of the figures for December and November: 71,000 jobs more than we thought were thus created during the period.

While the announcements of social plans follow one another, the various national statistics continue to paint a favorable picture of the job market.

The number of unfilled jobs, for example in December, rose by nearly 600,000 units, whereas on the contrary we hoped for a drop which would have illustrated the beginning of an easing of the labor shortage.

Last week, the figures for new jobless claims also took the experts on the wrong foot, falling 183,000 units to their lowest level since April 2022.

Read alsoUnited States: inflation slows, the Fed begins a delicate turn

The fear of seeing the Federal Reserve go too far in its key rate hikes is based on the feeling that the American economy is running out of steam dangerously and that employment will deteriorate.

However, if the signs of slowing consumption are abundant, on the other hand hiring remains surprisingly strong.

The contraction in manufacturing activity, the recession in real estate, the marked fall in demand which is affecting the biggest in technology, from Apple to Microsoft via Google and Intel, are hardly seen in the published data. by the Department of Labor.

Employment is admittedly known as the last thing to set back when a recession is looming.

But from there to taunt the forecasters to this point, there is a large margin.

The unemployment rate, logically, therefore fell further and fell in January to 3.4%, its lowest level for more than 53 years.

The labor force participation rate, which measures the presence or return to the labor market of people of working age, climbs to 62.4% against 62.3% in December, and 62.2% a year ago. a year.

Read alsoThe growth saved by American consumption

The misreading of the reality of the job market is cause for concern for the Federal Reserve.

Jerome Powell and his colleagues, reassured by the signs of a slowdown in inflation since last summer, are indeed convinced that the shortage of labor in relation to hiring is fueling wage increases of a sustainably fuel price increases.

This new surge in hiring, which remains good news in itself, therefore contradicts their hopes for a “

”.

The sharp rise in bond yields on Friday therefore reflects the feeling that the Fed may not be that close to interrupting its key rate hikes.

SEE

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