The latest official data on industrial and construction activity in December showed falls of 2.7% and 10.6% year-on-year, respectively.
This slowdown that the economy has been experiencing since October of last year would be
indicating the prelude to an even stronger cooling for the first quarter of the year
, according to economists.
The falls in the two most important branches of economic activity are part of the
restrictions to access dollars
that most sectors have and also the increase in construction prices measured in foreign currency.
Thus,
it is probable that the cooling will be lasting,
according to the opinion of the economist
Jorge Neyro
.
The analyst maintains that "it is likely that we will have
growth numbers around zero in the first quarter"
and explains: "Construction in particular is going through
yet another recessionary phase
, while the industry has just shown year-on-year falls." Everything, according to His vision is part of the foreign exchange restrictions that the economy presents and the increase in construction costs in dollars. And it points to a general scenario of
stagflation with a moderate drop in activity and high inflation
," he says.
Every year that there is a drought causes a deterioration throughout the year and, in this particular 2023, there will be a sharp drop in the net supply of dollars
Sebastián MenescaldiEcoGo
“What is seen -explains, for his part,
Sebastián Menescaldi
, economist at the
Eco Go
consultancy - is the
confirmation of the recessive bias that began last September
.
That started having a negative impact on
imports and investment,
the leading indicators of the cycle," he says.
"In the first quarter, the decline is probably going to be stronger,"
according to the analyst.
In December there was a fall in the amounts imported that followed in January.
This lower imported supply implies less transport, less trade
and also less activity
.
To this, we must add
the effect of the drought that adds a drop in economic activity
.
"In general, each year in which there is a drought causes a deterioration throughout the year and, in this 2023 in particular, there will be a
strong drop in the net supply of dollars
compared to last year. That will limit imports and the level of activity," he said.
Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina
recalls that the official indicator of economic activity, EMAE, fell in September, October and November, in seasonally adjusted terms.
That is to say, there are already
four months of recessive bias
.
A recession scenario is possible for the second quarter of the year
Fausto Spotorno Orlando Ferreres & Associates
"It has been a contraction that
will probably extend into the first quarter
of the year. We will see if it continues or if a recovery arrives," he warns.
"Although there is also the issue of the drought that is added to the electoral issue, that is,
if the government implements a more expansive economic policy
," she says.
In this regard,
Fausto Spotorno
, from the Orlando Ferreres & Asociados consultancy, believes that "
a recession scenario is possible for the second quarter of the year."
He refers to the fact that, technically, one speaks of a "recession" when there are
two consecutive quarters of falling activity.
There is a certain exhaustion of the growth process due to structural constraints.
Ricardo DelgadoAnalytica
For his part,
Ricardo Delgado,
from Analytica, proposes
"a certain exhaustion of the growth process
, which can be seen in some
structural limitations
that are observed, such as the relationship between imports and activity; the performance of exports, in relative terms with comparable countries of the region and innovation, measured by the
number of operating companies
and the
creation of registered employment
by new firms.
Its
growth projection for the economy in 2023 is 1.6%,
somewhat below the 2% forecast by the Government and ratified by the IMF.
Meanwhile, ECLAC expects the Argentine economy to grow just 1% due to the slowdown in China.
Finally, according to the vision of the economist
Luis Palma Cané
, “clearly as soon as the controls, the emission, the inflation and the social and political insecurity continue, the deceleration of the economy is turning into a recession.
In my scenario,
the quarterly recessions will increase to end 2023 with stagflation”
, he predicted.
NE
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