US President Joe Biden. How far will a friend of Israel go to stop the legal revolution? (Photo: Reuters)
Americans are the nation of the understatement.
Even when they want to say something harsh, they will lower the tone by a few decibels and convey a relatively polite message to the situation.
This does not mean that the actions that will follow the polite words will not be difficult, just that perhaps in the Israeli speech culture, which has long since lost the ability to distinguish nuances, it is worth mentioning the difference between a statement by a senior official in the US and his counterpart in Israel. This is the gentle approach the administration in the US has taken regarding the
reform Legal in Israel.
At the beginning of the legislative process, casual statements were made on the matter by senior officials, then high-ranking envoys were sent to Israel to sharpen the concern in the ears of their counterparts here, and then Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and President Joe Biden hinted publicly that they do not like what is happening here.
The luck, at least for now, of the Prime Minister and the coalition is that the majority of Israelis, who are used to flashy language as mentioned above, do not understand these subtleties.
Specifically, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who controls the faucets of public discourse in the US and is usually also sensitive to his image in the eyes of the Americans, knows how to listen to the music between the foreign words. Despite this, in recent weeks, his ears are closed to nuances. This may be why Washington had to increase the frequency of messages and the volume of the voice.
The US Ambassador to Israel, Tom Neides. When he calls to "press the brakes", what does he mean? (Photo: official website, Conference of Presidents)
Hit the brakes
Tom Neides, the US ambassador to Israel
, no longer maintained his restraint this week and at the behest of (his) president moved to reprimands: "The only thing that unites our countries is our democratic concept.
This is why we defend Israel at the UN.
If we believe that the democratic institutions are under pressure, we express it" and turned to Netanyahu: "Put on the brakes. Try to reach an agreement. We will not help when the backyard is on fire."
Will the next step be a transition from talk to action?
Experts on Israel-US relations do not rule out a scenario in which the American administration decides to impose economic sanctions on the State of Israel, and the first of which may be a cut in the generous aid it provides to us, in addition to a host of other measures it can take.
In 2018, Barack Obama and Benjamin Netanyahu signed a ten-year aid agreement, under which Israel will receive 3.8 billion dollars each year, the value of the agreement, which should end in 2028, amounts to 38 billion dollars.
Only those who think that the money is safe in our pockets are wrong: every year there is a need to re-authorize the aid as part of the annual budget discussions, which are happening right now and make the current period particularly explosive.
The American budget year begins on October 1st and ends on September 30th.
The president submits the budget on February 15 and Congress begins debating it within six weeks, that is, on April 1.
Congressional approval should be completed by June 30.
This schedule is especially critical this year for Israel, because if Netanyahu does not heed the warnings, there is a real danger that Israel's economic and military aid budget will be damaged, which means the loss of a great deal of money, a blow to any government, but in the current government that desires especially generous coalition agreements, even above that.
"We are 100 percent dependent on the US, for our economy, security and international relations and not the other way around, despite the defiant statements of some members of the Knesset, who allow themselves to harm it," states Prof. Eitan Gilboa, an expert on the US
at Bar Ilan University and a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and security
.
"Netanyahu does not have much time to prove that he is in control of things. If the legislation and protests continue at the same rate, there is a significant probability that the USA will punish Israel.
"Whoever thinks that the agreement signed for ten years is an insurance certificate is very wrong. You cannot spend a cent without annual approval from Congress and if he does not want to approve it, he can reduce it or stop it completely. Right now the discussions for the 2023 budget are taking place. The aid is a law and is being followed Serious discussions in both houses, in the economic and foreign affairs committees. The discussions there do not take place like in Rothman's constitution committee."
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The Iron Dome and the US flag. The connection between the two is close. Will the Americans use doomsday weapons to stop the reform? (Photo: Paul, Mark Israel Salem)
Will Iron Dome be damaged?
"The aid we receive could have been much greater, if Netanyahu had not annoyed Obama at the time," explains
Alon Pankas, former Israeli ambassador in New York
.
"He wanted to give us 4.5 billion dollars a year for a decade plus intelligence, access to satellite information and the placement of US weapons and combat systems in Israel, but then he gave a speech in Congress against the agreement with Iran and the aid was dramatically cut to only 3.8 billion dollars.
"The Americans can also announce a 'reevaluation' of relations with Israel, a move that will shake up the cards here, as Kissinger did in 1975, when Rabin was prime minister. Kissinger proposed an agreement between Israel and Egypt on the return of territories in the Sinai, Rabin refused , and got on their nerves. He announced a 're-evaluation' of relations, which sent the system into a tailspin and ultimately Rabin folded.
It happened when the relationship between the countries was much closer between the countries than today, when it is much easier to get to this place.
One sentence from Washington about 'reevaluation' automatically lowers Israel's credit rating.
"Last March, the Americans approved an additional ten billion dollars in aid to Israel for the Iron Dome, and that too can be stopped. At the time, there were interpretations by military and security personnel that we are not attacking Gaza, because we do not have enough missiles for the Iron Dome, which is a joint project of the two countries. I Not sure we want to get there."
According to Prof. Gilboa, Netanyahu's biggest fear is that Israel will be defined as a "leper state", one step above the "apartheid state", which is the bottom of the bottom.
"The meaning of 'a leper country' is economic sanctions, like those imposed on Russia. We need to put it in perspective. This is a catastrophic scenario whose probability is currently not high, but if the serious trends that are happening here continue, and with them also what is happening in Judea and Samaria, and it disturbs them very much , it may come true.
"Within a moment, investments in Israel will stop, money and high-tech companies will move to the US, not out of choice, but out of necessity. If we get to that, our economy will crash and we will become a third world country. This is exactly the scenario that 150 economists and 57 High-ranking judges in the US warn against it, but Netanyahu insists not to see it."
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