Part of the economic team traveled to Washington to review with the IMF the December 2022 goals, which have already been met and for which close to US$5.4 billion
would be disbursed shortly
.
So far, nothing new.
On Saturday it was reported that the Government asked to "modify" the quarterly goals for 2023, but maintaining the annual goals, under the excuse that Argentina was shocked by the war between Ukraine and Russia and, more recently, by the drought. Little excuses credible.
Because the war in Ukraine is already one year old and most of the countries are already recovering.
And if it were "due to the drought", then they should modify the goals for June, and not those for March, since the second quarter is where exports will drop due to the drought of soybeans and corn.
Beyond the change in macroeconomic goals with the IMF, what is "seized with pins" is the Argentine economy.
It is precisely the spirit of the “Plan Llargar”.
If we get strict, since Argentina signed the new agreement with the IMF in March 2022, the goals were "officially" met, but in reality, economists already know
that ALL the goals were not met
.
The goals of June 2022, with Martín Guzmán as minister, were met with the help of an exchange holiday.
The September goals, thanks to the Soybean Plan 1 that allowed us to advance US$ 8,000 million of soybeans and the December goals, thanks to the
US$ 3,100 million
of Dollar Soybeans 2.
In any case, the goals of March 2023 are changed because the Government decided to advance
US$ 5,000 million
in 2022;
but not because of the drought.
And let's not delve into the monetary issue goal, when in 2022 the ceiling was
$620,000 million
, but in reality it was almost
$3 trillion,
because the BCRA has been rescuing the debt in pesos since last June.
In other words, the Government asked to change the March goals, but because the dollars were spent.
It was changing the goals or asking for a “waiver” (forgiveness)
.
Having said this, both with the change in goal and with the waiver, the Government could also receive the agreed disbursement of
US$4,000 million in June.
Of the 3 quarterly goals with the IMF (1. fiscal deficit; 2. non-issuance of the BCRA and 3. Increase net international reserves),
the one that today looks "impossible" is the Net Reserves
.
Today the Net Reserves add up to
US$4.200 million
and the Government has to reach
US$7.700 million
in March.
And there is still no news about the Soybean Dollar 3, the “famous” Repo for
US$ 1,000 million
or more disbursements from organizations.
The fiscal goal was complicated: in January it gave a fiscal deficit of
$204,000 million and the goal for the first quarter is $415,000 million
.
That is, it has to be $209,000 million in February-March;
And it is difficult, because in March it is seasonally higher, due to increased mobility.
In the monetary goal, it is the only one where it is good;
the Treasury is having good roll-over levels (140%
) that would allow it not to use the
$140,000 million
of monetary issue allowed until March 2023. Now the Government seeks to clear the April maturities (of
$2 trillion)
.
Given that there is captive demand in banks and Institutions, they would accompany with exchanges to postpone maturities to 2024.
lie to the lonely
The drought is not a black swan, and it is incorporated into the market (which will force more control of imports with the SIRA system and will seek to avoid devaluation).
The impact of a change in the IMF's targets is yet another stain on the Argentine tiger and should not have much of an impact on the market.
The IMF has been very lax with Argentina and today it seems increasingly clear that the Agreement served more to prevent a Kirchnerist government from breaking with the IMF than anything else.
Unfortunately, Argentina did not take advantage of the program to order the macro.
She lied to herself in solitary.
The dollars are still missing to pay the IMF.
Beyond the change in target and the fact that Argentina is lying to itself, there is something more relevant and that is that, even if it met the quarterly goals of 2023, the disbursements that the IMF will make are still not enough to cover the payments that must be made to it. in the coming months.
Argentina has to make “net payments to the IMF” of US$3.3 billion in 2023
, which it will have to get from somewhere.
We imagine that they will be achieved in other international organizations or countries.
Finally, the March goal, which the government asked to modify on Saturday, is the last goal that will fall under the responsibility of the current Kirchner government.
Because
the next goal, the one for the month of June, will only be reviewed after the PASO,
in the month of September.
And in Argentina, it seems that everything that falls after STEP is already the responsibility of the next government.
Fernando Marull is an economist and director of FMyA.
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