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LNG tanker in front of the Chinese port of Dalian
Photo: Aizhu Chen / REUTERS
After the fall of the crisis, gas prices in Europe have calmed down considerably.
But the International Energy Agency warns that the crisis may not be over for a long time.
Although prices have fallen in recent months, this could change in the current year if demand in Asia and especially China picks up again, the IEA said in its gas market report published in Paris on Tuesday.
As the world's largest natural gas importer, China recently lifted its Covid restrictions that had dampened domestic demand last year.
In an optimistic scenario, renewed growth in demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in China could be as high as 35 percent, the IEA said.
This would trigger fierce competition in international markets and could result in gas prices returning to unsustainable levels of last summer, posing a particular problem for European consumers.
"China is the great unknown"
»The past year was exceptional for the global gas markets.
Prices are returning to bearable levels, particularly in Europe, where a mild winter and falling demand have helped cool markets,” said IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori.
"China is the big unknown in 2023. If global LNG demand returns to pre-crisis levels, it will only intensify competition in global markets and inevitably push prices up again."
Despite the increase in global LNG demand in 2022, the increase in supply has been relatively modest at 5.5 percent, according to the IEA.
Investment activity was sluggish due to rising construction costs and ongoing contract renegotiations.
However, many projects already awaiting investment -- including several ventures in North America and the North Field South expansion in Qatar -- are making significant progress towards a final decision, the IEA said.
beb/dpa