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The global tension hit the bonds and the country risk approached 2,100 points


The tension due to global inflation persists and affects emerging markets. Doubts about the Argentine economy and recent bad data do not help.

After having closed February in red, Argentine assets

have not been able to raise their heads

this month.

This Thursday, stocks and bonds ended with strong falls, which deepened in the case of debt instruments, due to a climate of greater risk aversion in global markets.

Bonds in dollars closed with reds of up to 2.6%

and managed to partly cut their fall since at half a wheel they had come down to 5%.

In this context, the country risk worsened again and ended in the area of ​​2,088 points. 

Meanwhile, in a day of extreme caution on Wall Street, Argentine shares listed in New York were 

mostly lower

, led by Grupo Financiero Galicia, which sank more than 6%.

This impacted the activity of the Merval, which ended with a fall of 2.7%,

Although Argentina reaches the third month of the year with data that is not encouraging regarding its macro activity and its financial front, the main driver of these falls is the rise in the

10-year Treasury rate of the United States,

which on Wednesday reached touch 4%, while the short-term, the two-year one reached 4.9%,

a level that it had not seen since the financial crisis of 2008


Both milestones hit credit markets.

Santiago López Alfaro, from Patente Valores, explained that the bad external climate complicates Argentine assets.

However, he pointed out: "Short rates have risen sharply since last year and that was very bad for risky assets. But these levels are high, rates can go up a bit more but we should be in their final move by now. And in the medium term this could turn around and dollar bonds could rebound".

For Pablo Repetto, from Aurum Valores, there are

local factors that further affect the prices

of Argentine debt instruments: "The reports that arise regarding the fact that

the IMF would be even more condescending

in the program with Argentina, would be affecting the performance of the bonds that fall very significantly. To that would be added the probable and persistent

official intervention in the market to control the free dollars

, "he said.

Meanwhile, Martín Polo, from Cohen, said regarding the evolution of Argentine assets in recent weeks: "The recovery that they had been showing ended in mid-January and since then they have been lateralizing. The bad local context added to the volatility of the global environment and a bit of bad luck due to weather effects are a heavy backpack for expectations."

Going forward, the outlook looks complicated.

Polo added: "To this is added

a political climate that is heating up

and where uncertainty and the

lack of clear signs

for 2024 predominate. The economy entered a contractive phase, with accelerating inflation and with the Central Bank losing reserves while the public accounts deteriorate as public spending recovers the momentum lost in the second half of last year".


look also

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Power cut in Argentina: "The system is tied with wire," warned a former Secretary of Energy after the blackout

Source: clarin

All business articles on 2023-03-02

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