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Civil war? At this rate there will be nothing left to fight for - voila! Of money


The tension surrounding the legal revolution is intensifying, but the investors from home and abroad are not waiting to see who will be the last to turn off the light

On video: ninth consecutive Saturday of protest: tens of thousands of demonstrators across the country against the legal revolution (photo: Karin Sagi, Yael Barash, Reuven Castro)

Until a few days ago it was speculation, the legal reform parties claimed that these were politically biased assessments of those who prefer to see black people.

There were those who mentioned the political tsunami that one of the main speakers of the current protest movement, Ehud Barak, warned against - a tsunami that, as I recall, did not happen in the end, to put it mildly.

So is it possible that all this hysteria is actually politics in disguise?

The advantage of economics, unlike politics, is that it provides quick, even sharp answers.

She doesn't need polls - as her truth results are polled all the time.

The downside is that the bottom line is hard to digest.

Those who want to skip reading the following paragraphs are freed from them already, provided they remember two main conclusions: frame it however you want, but the reform or the revolution or the legal coup is already beginning to damage what was considered until months ago (and some would even say weeks) the strongest economy in the world.

The second thing is that it is not Netanyahu, for anyone who asked why "Mr. Economy" does not press the brakes to prevent a deterioration into the abyss, he is not the one sitting at the wheel.

There are no brakes

Let's start with the second point.

Personally, I have to admit that the thesis that it is not Netanyahu who is dictating the pace of events, I rejected out of hand at first: Netanyahu, the man who became more popular on the ultra-Orthodox street than any great Torah, the man who stood at the center of the political controversy, until he became the only question that interests the voters, namely: only- Bibi or just-not-Bibi.

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Really not in control of the event.

Netanyahu (photo: photo processing, Reuven Castro, Yonatan Zindel Flash 90)

The prime minister who broke the records for the length of the term set by David Ben-Gurion, the man who governs the Likud movement without Egypt - is this the man, who was nicknamed "Mr. Economy" who watches the numbers and falls short of the savior?

We dismissed the first ones who claimed that Levin and Rothman were actually responsible for the legal side, along with entrusting the political case to Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, almost as delusional, as those who are already ready to believe anything about Netanyahu.

However, we received the winning answer to this question, at least in its legislative aspect, at the end of the week with the news of a meeting at the home of businessman Shlomo Debrat, which included some of the top leaders of the Israeli high-tech industry, a meeting in which they presented to the Minister of Justice the dangers lurking for the Israeli economy (report by Amalia Doak, News 12).

Why should the heads of the high-tech industry (who can meet with the Prime Minister himself if they wish) warn the Minister of Justice?

Who knew who Levin's opponent was?

Well, there is a combination here between the instinct of businessmen to immediately locate the one who is wrong, and the more explicit knowledge of those who heard from Netanyahu, implicitly, a message of "chained hands".

This figure in itself is not only alarming but almost delusional and a little empty of content to the main argument of the supporters of the reform, as if the elections that took place only four months ago were actually a referendum on the policies led by the elected government.


Because it is doubtful if those who elected Netanyahu even knew who Levin's opponent was, what role was intended for him - and even those who did knew, it is doubtful if they had heard before about Simcha Rothman, who became the executor of the revolution.

The tiger is rampaging.

Yariv Levin with Smotrich (Photo: Reuven Castro)

Many things can be said about the standing of the Israeli voter, in admirable percentages, on Benjamin Netanyahu's side - but it cannot be said that except for when a few (by the way, also in the camp that opposes Netanyahu) knew in advance that this would be the main issue - and in fact almost the only one - that the new government would promote (no All the more he went into the depth of concepts such as appointing judges, overcoming and more).

Netanyahu rode on the back of the tiger all the way to the two residences of the prime minister, but in the last few days he discovered that this tiger has teeth: Smotrich bends his hand in the security arena, Ben Gabir does so in all matters related to internal security and the Levin-Rotman duo does so in the legislative aspect.

Netanyahu, who did not recognize in time the fact that this is no longer the band of cheerleaders that spans the Regev-Krei axis, has gone from leader to leader.

The stock market goes down, the money runs away

But this, believe it or not, is still the good news, because even if Netanyahu is led to lightning legislation, it is possible that this will do good for the Israeli economy (that is, if you ignore the constitutional crisis that may push any representative of the law, whether he wears the uniform of the IDF or the uniform of the police , to decide who he is loyal to - the government or the court), as the Minister of Finance said, for example. Isn't that right?

So let's start with him, because anyone with a musical ear will be able to notice even in him the change in tone - from the promise of a rosy economic future under the auspices of the state budget that he managed to pass, Smotritz passed For a new hymn: there will be difficulties at the beginning, but in the long run it will be good. Therefore, we will follow the example of the Minister of Finance and examine those initial difficulties: are they the ropes of Christ or the writing on the wall?

While Wall Start is rising, the indices in Tel Aviv are red (Photo: Reuven Castro)

So here are the facts: when you look at the performance of the leading indices, "S&P 500" versus "TA 125", i.e. the performance of the capital market in Israel compared to that overseas, you find numbers that are nothing short of amazing: since the elections in Israel, the local stock market has fallen by almost 3.5% while in New York it rose to nearly 11.5%.

Even when all possible assumptions are given to this scenario: global influences that are not related to local politics, the late response built into the Israeli economy to the global scenario (due to inflation), a decrease in high-tech investments, which is a significant pillar of Israel's economy Unusually compared to the rest of the world - and even if you ignore the first months, those between the decision of the voters in Israel and the beginning of the legislative blitz, reveal a huge gap between the stock markets' performance.

If it had been an American president, this index would have become the main indicator, if not the only one, for checking the success or failure of his policies.

In Israel, this is an angle that is understood mainly by economists,

Moreover - the flight of capital from Israel, although it is still limited, is already a clear fact: the public in Israel is diverting its investments from funds that invest in Israel to the international markets.

The day we run to the bank

The main problem with this figure is that that famous lady "Ricky Cohen from Hadera" doesn't really share it.

That is, she has not yet diverted her limited investment from Israel to abroad, but here is one thing to remember about Mrs. Cohen: when she runs to the bank or the investment house that is responsible for the funds she saved by the sweat of her nose to redeem them, she will find the gates locked.

The snowball continues to roll (Photo: Reuven Castro)

That is - when the snowball that is now rolling in the capitalists' court reaches its court, it is a sign that the catastrophe is already such that it can no longer be prevented - and those who did not extract their money from here, may say goodbye to it forever or hope that a faltering economy that relies on diminishing public support, will be able to recover .

injury time

We deliberately ignored here moral, political and other aspects related to the reform, we assumed the threatening constitutional crisis, we assumed prophecies of anger about fratricidal war - this is not because we, God forbid, underestimate them.

We focused only on the facts, and these facts show that the reform or the revolution, call it whatever you want, not only could harm the Israeli economy, but that it is already harming it in practice.

Let it be said right away: the Israeli economy is still strong, the foreign currency balances held by the Bank of Israel are still large - and Israel's credit rating (as we learned just last week) is still high (even if some question marks have already appeared in the comments section).

But, and this is a huge "but": while the building of a strong economy takes years (and we must say to Benjamin Netanyahu's credit that he was a major partner in the great growth in Israel for most of his years in office!), its destruction may occur within a few months, not to mention weeks, especially when it becomes clear That the man we believed who holds the steering wheel with both hands, half-heartedly admits that questions are connected behind his back.

And therefore: are Smotrich and Levin the ones who will save the economy from crashing?

  • Of money

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  • demonstrations

  • The legal revolution

Source: walla

All business articles on 2023-03-05

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