If Argentina enters a recession this year, as most private forecasts predict,
the government of Alberto Fernández will end up with an estimated poverty level of 37.2%
, almost two percentage points above the level it was when it started in 2019.
A survey of the Institute of Statistics of Workers of Workers (IET) of the Metropolitan University for Education and Work (UMET) and the Center for Concertation and Development (CCD), directed by former Minister of Education Nicolás Trotta , estimates that if the economy falls 1.4%, 2023
will close with a poverty rate of 37.2%, compared to 35.5% when he took office in 2019.
The CCD manages three scenarios for this year.
In the optimist, what is established in the Budget is fulfilled and the economy grows 2%, which leads to closing with a poverty of 35.2%,
just 0.3 tenths below the record of the last year of Mauricio Macri.
In the medium scenario, GDP would grow 0.5% and poverty would drop to 35.6%.
However,
almost all private projections speak of a drop in activity of between 1 and 3%, so the pessimistic scenario is the most likely.
Forecasts for this year range from 0% growth for (Ecolatina) to a 3.7% decline for EcoGo, while both LCG and FMyA forecast
a 2% drop.
In the last decade,
2013 was the time when the lowest level of poverty was recorded, with 26.1%
.
From there it climbed to 28.5% in the last year of Cristina Kirchner's government.
In Macri's management, the floor was 27.1% in 2017 and then climbed to 35.5% in 2019.
In Alberto's first year
, due to the pandemic, poverty spread to 41.5% to fall to 35.3% last year,
always according to the UMET measurement.
Now, the scenario that the CCD manages is that the Frente de Todos ends this administration with a record of between 35.2% and 37.5%, depending on whether it grows 2% as the government says, or the economy falls 1 .4%, a scenario more in line with the forecasts of private consultants.
The report confirms the deterioration of the income of Argentines.
While in the July-December 2017 semester, the poor and middle-income segment represented 59.9% of the population, in the April-September 2022 semester, the last
for which data is available, more 7 out of 10 (73.3%) people registered income below two poverty lines.
"Between 2017 and 2021, the population structure according to income exhibits a flattening, with the population increasingly concentrating in the poor and lower-middle income segments," details the CCD.
The report also states that when comparing the last two semesters,
"all strata see their purchasing power deteriorated
. "
Along these lines, they note that the debacle exhibits a certain progressiveness:
for the lower stratum the retraction was 2.6%, while for the upper stratum it was 10.2%
.
In this way, although this setback could be interpreted as a reduction in inequality, "it responds to the general flattening of income in an inflationary context", the report mentions.
AQ
look also
Dollar today and dollar blue, LIVE: how much was it quoted and what was its price this March 3, minute by minute
The dollar lost the race against inflation in February: what is the strategy of the Central
