The debt swap, criticized by the opposition and backed by the banks, presents some nuances for the market.
For now, this Monday
Argentine assets responded with increases
and local debt instruments ended with mixed results.
"This agreement deactivates the idea of the bomb that some want to plant, clears up the uncertainty in the maturities of 2023 and serves as the basis for other agreements to improve the level of access to credit for citizens, which means greater investment in the economy" , remarked the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa after the announcement that came after weeks of negotiations with the entities.
The market is cautiously following the "voluntary government" conversion proposal, although many agree that it
"only kicks the problem forward."
From the banking sector, Carlos Heller, president of Banco Credicoop, expressed when consulted by
Clarín
: "
This swap improves the debt profile, it does not increase or decrease the level of indebtedness.
The Government did not include special conditions, they were already in the same instruments that are sought to be exchanged. This serves to order the macro forward and avoid the doubt of several monthly tenders where it is speculated whether or not the Treasury will be able to refinance its balances".
Instead, market analysts are more cautious.
"The truly relevant maturities for the exchange with which the government wants to advance and rejects the opposition are the maturities with private parties. The
amount involved, if maturities up to June are considered, we estimate it at $4.6 trillion.
Of that figure, $1.6 trillion are concentrated in banks and $0.4 trillion in insurance companies," said Pablo Repetto, from Aurum Valores.
"If the banks proceed with an exchange of 50% of their holdings, as reported, and the insurance companies do the same,
$1 trillion of maturities would be cleared
," added Repetto, who clarified: "once the exchange is executed, there would remain US$ 10,000 million to expire in private. And in a few months with the current roll over term plus the rates they pay you will be in the same problem again".
In addition to public complaints, in the opposition they marked their strong rejection
: "It is a gun to the head of the next government
. "
Despite the fact that the Minister insisted that this measure serves to "order" the financial system, in the City they are cautious.
"We do not believe that this attempt to "kick" the weight problem was expected
and would be a way to soften the issuance for the repurchase of titles in the secondary market
," said PPI analysts, who acknowledged.
"We are also not specifically optimistic about its outcome."
For his part, Javier Timmermann, a partner at Adcap Grupo Financiero, said: "We have a very important challenge due to our lack of credibility. The measures do not generate positive expectations abroad."
At the same time, he added: "Let's lower the drama and think about sustainable measures over time.
Let's keep the idea that the debt in pesos does not have to be defaulted
."
look too
For the opposition, the swap is "a vile and ruinous operation for the State"
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