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Warning note: What does "Moody's" actually say about the Israeli economy? - Walla! Of money

2023-03-08T07:01:02.723Z


The State of Israel is likened to a child who received a note in a diary, but when he came to have his mother or father sign it, he discovered that there was no responsible parent present. Why should the extraordinary report worry the supporters of the government?


Prime Minister and Minister of Finance.

Appalling irresponsibility in the face of alarming developments (Photo: Flash 90, Yonatan Zindel)

Remember the days when you were a student at school, and every time you were involved in something less than positive - from failing to prepare lessons to getting into a fight at recess, you got a note in the diary?

On those notes, if we continue the image, we were supposed to sign our parents, a sign and proof that they saw what the teacher wrote.



I promise to return to this image (I was a naughty boy), but first a little about the comment that the State of Israel received yesterday from Moody's rating agency.



Let's start with the good news: Israel's credit rating has not changed, it remains high, although not as high as it can be, the place we are aiming for.



What does it resemble?

For a team that competed for the championship (promotion to the Champions League of the credit rating) but will have to settle for what is known in Israel as a "ticket to Europe".

That is, Israel's credit rating will not rise - and the forecast for it "overall" was changed from "positive" to "stable", like a soccer team that had a good season, but a disappointing playoff.

The President of Iran and the Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission. Israel always faces a danger that casts doubt on its credit rating, only this time it is from Israel (Photo: Reuters)

Where would you buy an apartment?

After we were required to consider the few bright spots in the note published by the rating agency, we will go to the bad part - and unfortunately it must turn on a red light for all of us, yes - even those who support the reform!

And maybe mostly with them.



Let's start by saying that this is not a comment that is part of a routine review of the world's markets, but a special case.

In other words: Moody's identified a danger and decided that it is so great that it must be taken into account and publish something, even if it is not explicitly called that, it is actually a warning to investors, because otherwise - why is a special report required?



Investors like stability.

Everyone will think about themselves, if they were lucky and had the opportunity to purchase an apartment for investment.

Would you prefer to purchase it in a dubious neighborhood that might one day turn good and yield a nice return on investment or would you prefer to purchase it in a fair neighborhood where the stable rent you will receive for renting it out will not be subject to dramatic effects?

So are the foreign investors - instability bothers them a lot.



It should be said right away - a cloudy horizon is always a danger in the skies of the Middle East.

This is the reason why even the Israeli economy, which until just a few weeks ago(!) was one of the strongest in the world, did not receive the maximum score, since it is never possible to know when Iran will arrive with a nuclear bomb or when, God forbid, a missile attack will be launched from Gaza or Lebanon.



And yet, move on: the Israeli economy was in such good shape that the rating agency admits that they considered reducing the weight of the environmental threats to the State of Israel and moving us up to the dream rating.

The phrase "Switzerland of the Middle East" that has become a cliché, was just a touch away.

Instead we deteriorated a bit, even if we haven't been relegated yet.

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In the economy, their specific weight makes the difference (photo: Yanon Shalom Yathach)

Hightkist mood

The following sentence will be hated by the many supporters of the current government, but the only reason why Israel has not yet deteriorated in the ranking is the stable economic legacy left behind by the change government, which lasted only about a year and a half.



If it weren't for the large reserves left in the treasury, our situation today would be much worse.

It is true that not all the credit goes to Lieberman, Bennett and Lapid, that is - it originates from global economic processes (as well as, for example, the increase in the cost of living, one of the causes of the fall of the previous government), but they, unlike Netanyahu, are the 2023 model (in complete contrast, by the way, to previous models of that prime minister) and Smotrich (that with each passing day it becomes clear how unfit he is for his sensitive position, especially at this time), knew how not to miss the opportunity that was presented to them and us on a hi-tech platter.



Which brings us to another bad point in the report published last night: without the Israeli high-tech industry - and with all due respect to agriculture and the local traditional industry, we have nothing to sell to the world, literally.

We have nothing to distinguish us from the poor countries around us.



So it can be said a thousand times that the beauty of democracy is that the voice of a textile factory worker from Dimona is just as equal as the voice of a high-tech worker from Ra'anana (sorry for the double stereotyping), but in terms of contribution to the economy, the atmosphere of the underprivileged that pervades the advanced industry in Israel and that brings its workers out to protest in the streets, is an economic-existential danger .



Yes, it doesn't sound good, but economics has no political correctness.

If we continue this line, this is the place to mention that in the event of a catastrophe, high-tech from the center of the country has both savings and the option of relocation.

That is - and there is no nice way to say it: those who will be beaten to the bone and below the poverty line are from the weak strata, many of them are voters of the coalition parties that bring them to the point of impoverishment.

Think of them what you want, but at least they handled the Israeli economy with the responsibility required of their position (Photo: Flash 90, Yonatan Zindel)

Smotrich's celebration

A few days ago the finance minister was quick to celebrate the fact that Israel's credit rating was not damaged.

We wrote here already then that Smotrich chose to focus on what is convenient for him, the result and not the process.



Like a soccer coach (sorry for walking to the same place every time, but my world is as narrow as the Ultras stand) who sees how his team defends and is on the verge of absorption, but procrastinates with the substitutions because the result is still a draw.



In that report there was also a worrisome warning note for Israel, but the warning lights only turned on among more responsible parties than the current government, such as the Bank of Israel for example (which was quick to tighten its surveillance after the withdrawal of funds from the state).



So yes, the State of Israel this morning is like a disobedient child who received a note in the diary and needs to be signed by his parents.

She is debating whether to forge their signature (remember...?) or take responsibility for her actions.

The apparent problem, in our case, is that a responsible parent is not around - and that in itself should worry us all a lot, much more than another A plus or minus, which we received from the rating agency.

  • Of money

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  • Benjamin Netanyahu

  • Bezalel Smotrich

  • Credit Rating

Source: walla

All business articles on 2023-03-08

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