In a few days, the INDEC is going to announce inflation for February, which analysts estimate to be close to 6%.
In the meantime, the calculations on the change in retail prices for March are already underway.
As it is a seasonally high month, basically due to the start of classes and the rest of the activities,
a higher rise than February is expected: between 6% and 6.5%.
According to analysts who participate in the Survey of Market Expectations (REM), of the Central Bank, the Consumer Price Index for February reached 6.1% per month, while for March they expect it to register
another acceleration until reaching 6.3 %
The decline would only begin in April, with a monthly record of 5.9%.
In any case, at this rate, the goal of 60% annual inflation set by the Government in the 2023 Budget is significantly removed.
The historical trend of March to be a month with strong pressure on prices, higher than the average for the rest of the year, has to do -beyond the Education item due to the start of classes- with the seasonal increases in Clothing due to the change
But also, punctually, in this March, the persistent increases in beef
, which shot up in February and pulls the food item which, in turn, explains 23% of the CPI.
As happened in February, when they registered increases of 8 to 10% per month,
food left a significant drag on March,
On the other hand, this month, the increases in
the rates of water and gas, trains and buses (6%)
private schools (16.4%), fuel (3.8%) and prepaid (7.7% ) for those who receive net income equal to or greater than $392,562 and 5% for those with salaries less than that amount and domestic service (4%).
Regarding the impact of inflation on the different socioeconomic sectors, the Ecolatina consultancy analyzed that the greatest price pressures fall on the poorest households that consume in local businesses where Fair Prices do not reach and consumer spending ends up being more high.
This factor, added to "
the shortage of foreign currency and the drought, plus the weaknesses that Fair Prices present,
complicate the search to avoid a greater impact of inflation on the most vulnerable households,"
he said in his latest report.
For JPMorgan, meanwhile, expectations are no more optimistic: "amid high (and growing) repressed inflation, we continue to expect core inflation to accelerate further as the government advances until the October elections, stretching the current policy framework to the limits".
"Our baseline scenario assumes monthly headline inflation of 6.0% month-on-month, on average, in the first half of 2023, and accelerated to 7.0% month-on-month in the second. This path is
consistent with inflation in December of 112
% ", calculated JP Morgan.
From the Center for Economic Studies Argentina XXI (CEEAXXI) Eliana Scialabba estimated that inflation in February was 6.2% and that,
in March, prices will be closer to 6.5%.
In February we already broke the 100% year-on-year barrier,” she recalled.
“The reality is that the inflationary scale
follows the monetary dynamics
, and although the Government continues to deny it, the data only confirms the theory.
Despite the strong sterilization carried out by the BCRA, the agents take the future issuance of these pesos for granted, bringing the demand for money to a minimum," he highlighted.
"This, in turn,
is boosted by the drought, which drives the price of fresh food up due to reduced supply
. In addition, the increase in the price of beef combined with the margin of butcher shops is added to increase prices, which reflect very negative real increases", explained the director of CEEAXXI.
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