At the start of 2023, the blue dollar maintains the trend of last year:
running behind inflation
.
Between January 2 and March 10, the informal price went from $346 to $373, an advance of 7.8%, while prices are heading to close the first quarter with a 20% jump.
Last year,
the parallel dollar was up 66.3% year-on-year
, while
inflation was 94.8%
.
Thus, those who bought dollars in the parallel market on December 31, 2021 and sold them a year later
lost 15% of purchasing power.
Last week the financial dollars jumped and closed at
$380
for the MEP and
$393
for cash with liquidity.
Is there room for the blue to remain still?
Stay with the pesos or compare dollars.
In dialogue with
Clarín,
María Castiglioni, economists and director of C&T Asesores Económicos, stressed that “having stocks, the blue market channels tensions, it is a thermometer.
In 2015 we had a similar situation
, with exchange restrictions, there was calm in the markets and in part it had to do with the fact that
people believed that any of the candidates at that time was better than the one who governed.
This was reflected in the surveys and optimism contributed to financial stability”.
Analysts affirm that the exchange calm responds to the fact that “these are high values in historical terms and reflect a very bad economic situation.
The tranquility of the last time is due to the fact that it could be worse”
, highlighted Iván Carrino.
In turn, Castiglioni explained that
the dollar is “pressed because higher interest rates have some impact
.
This makes some choose to stay in pesos or with indexed bonds, they are some containment factors.
But this implies that the government borrows more in another currency and assumes more risks.
Since last September, the Central Bank raised the interest rate, which for fixed terms
tends to be positive in light of inflation.
With the blue ironed, small savers turn to pesos so as not to lose against inflation and they look askance at what happens with the blue.
Tomás Álvarez Kuhnle, economist at Analytica, estimates that
"the value of the blue should be 10% higher
. The calm is due to the low expectations that a chaotic event of a financial nature will happen. In this sense, except for the result of the elections, it could happen that we see another year of relative stability.
Analyzing savings options is necessary.
Dollarize against inflation
“Dollarizing in an election year is convenient, because it is foreseeable that the lack of confidence will increase as the elections approach.
It is no coincidence that the swap took place prior to the elections, because the greater the uncertainty the credit available to the government decreases,” said Aldo Abram, economist and director of Libertad y Progreso.
The economist warned that “the price of blue at the end of the year depends on who wins the elections.
If the stocks are quickly removed, it will fall
, as it did at the end of 2015”.
But he added that
if the next government delays in ordering the economy, the opposite may happen
, since "if the president-elect is slow to realize it, the price of blue may continue to rise."
For his part, Álvarez Kuhnle pointed out that "in Argentina
people prefer the dollar as a store of value because although it may evolve below inflation for a while, in the long term it always exceeds it. Therefore,
if you keep in mind an economic crisis, becoming a dollar may be convenient, but at the risk that this crisis will not arrive".
“Today, having stocks, and doing everything wrong, the parallel dollar and inflation skyrocket in every way.
That the new government leaves the stocks within the first month of its mandate at the latest is what the market expects”
, Carrino pointed out.
The accounts do not close, inflation grows and the peso depreciates.
How much will the dollar be by the end of the year?
"Putting a price on the blue dollar is difficult," he said
Maria Castiglioni.
And she added:
"When there is mistrust, the tendency is for it to rise, especially in a scenario where inflation will continue to be above 100%."
Kuhnle
stated that
there is “a scenario where the dollar loses against inflation.
To the extent that the current management focuses on reducing the deficit, spending and monetary issue, then we find
a calm dollar and, therefore, rising less than inflation
”.
The economist
Carrino
estimated that "if the current conditions are maintained,
a price of $500 is a possibility
", and remarked that "if the elections are won by someone with reasonable ideas about the economy, and orders the public accounts, lower the issuance and pay debt commitments, all these measures generate confidence in investors, and as a consequence, the rise of the dollar stops.
Obviously,
if a coalition that is less 'friendly' to the market wins, then the scenario may be different
”, he affirmed.
Fernando J. Genazzini
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