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Due to the fall in reserves, the rumor of an exchange rate unfolding grows, although the Economy denies it


It would be a way of granting a higher exchange rate for foreign trade that does not imply a devaluation of the official dollar, which would further impact inflation.

The fragility of the reserves led to rumors of an exchange rate doubling taking hold in the market, a way of granting a higher exchange rate for foreign trade that does not imply a devaluation of the official dollar whose jump is transferred to its to the rest of the prices in the economy.

In Economy, for now,

they deny that this option is evaluated.

The dynamics of the sale of reserves for this beginning of the year had not been seen since the creation of the "Single and Free Exchange Market" (MULC) at the beginning of 2002. Since January, the organization has already sold US$ 2,000 million only for

the interventions in this market


The drought, the advance of agricultural liquidations in the last month of 2022 within the framework of the soybean dollar and a demand that, despite the import stocks, does not subside, mean that far from normalizing, in March the situation has worsened drastically.

The Central Bank has already sold US$1.3 billion this month

, making it the worst March since exchange controls were established.

The possibility of unfolding the exchange market is an issue that was already on the agenda of the economic team with the arrival of Sergio Massa at the Palacio de Hacienda, but which had been ruled out as one of the possible alternatives because it did not have the support of the Monetary Fund

. International.

However, the latest statement from the IMF regarding the agreement to "make more flexible" the reserve target set with the Government, hinted that it could also relax its requirements on this front.

Specifically, the agency stated: "the efforts will continue to ensure external competitiveness and strengthen the coverage of reserves, which the authorities plan to complement through

the timely rationalization of the exchange rate policy


Last weekend, the option gained strength and even economists close to the Government raised it as a viable alternative in the short term.

Despite this,

the Ministry of Economy denied that work is being done in this regard.

In a low voice, they warned that

the rumors come from the presidential adviser, the former CEO of Syngenta, Antonio Aracre,

who before his arrival at the public function had already said on several occasions his intention to divide the exchange market and somehow achieve unify the different prices in the economy.

The economist close to the government, Emmanuel Alvarez Agis, said in a weekly report from his consulting firm PXQ that the exchange rate unfolding "is not a solution to the drought."

However, he warned: "Unable to neutralize the impact of the drought by means of an alternative inflow of foreign currency (if the agreement with the IMF remains within the limits announced last week), the risk of a

doubling The exchange rate increases since the option for a devaluation was already ruled out

by the current minister as soon as he took office".

For his consultant, the impact of the drought, the level of inflation and the election year are factors that make

a possible jump in the dollar quickly move to prices


And they warned that although there is no "official data" to analyze this scenario, "

the preferences of the current economic management for "tailor-made suits" lead us to evaluate the splitting option


Daniel Marx, Sergio Massa's consultant, agreed that an exchange rate split is not a basic solution.

In radio statements, the founder of Quantum Valores, affirmed: "If implemented, it is a mechanism that would be a transitional exchange rate split. It does not prevent there being two prices for the same thing"-

"Today the difference is notable between the two prices and it is better to channel some operations through a market that tends to unify over time. The key is precisely in the transition: how to reduce this gap

and reach a single dollar



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Source: clarin

All business articles on 2023-03-20

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