"From here on out, it's going to be hard to find numbers below 6%."
The director of the consulting firm Ecolatina Analytics, Federico Moll, made a gloomy forecast for the CPI, which is already discounted to be 7% in March, and will not improve in the coming months.
"Our first survey for the first half of March showed us a level of inflation above that of February.
There is a seasonality that tends to complicate things, such as
the start of classes and clothing
," he said.
In dialogue with Radio Rivadavia, the consultant argued that "on the one hand
there is a statistical issue
that has to do with dragging."
"Food showed significant increases, education, clothing.
There is a very high inflation base that is already 5%
," he added.
In this sense, he assured that today
"there is no anchor"
that can lower inflation.
"The best anchor is expectations.
That people begin to think of future inflation as a deceleration process.
The Government does not have a reasonable inflation estimate," he said.
Regarding the course that inflation will take throughout the year, the consultant
forecasts 100%
,
"with the risk of falling short,"
said Moll.
In another order of things, Moll assured that today "there is no anchor" and that in a country with an anti-inflationary plan
"the best anchor is expectations"
.
In this sense, the economist clarified: "Obviously, inflation is not going to be 60%."
And he added: "There is no one from the Central Bank or the Ministry of Economy
saying what they expect."
Food led inflation in February 2023
Food prices continue to lead inflation by far.
With an average rise in February of 6.6%, food prices rose 9.8%,
with an outstanding 10.2% in the Capital and GBA (Conurbano) and 10.6% in the Cuyo Region and in the NOA.
Due to the higher incidence of food in the poorest regions, the average inflation rate of 6.6% jumps to 7.3% in the NOA and 7.8% in the NEA.
With an average of 21.1% for meat and 17.5% for fruit,
and strong increases in other basic foods such as flour (7.6%) and rice (14.6%), food inflation dominates the record Of the prices.
All these figures illustrate that
careful prices or fair prices have no relevance
in the INDEC measurement, nor in family spending.
NS
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