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Cash with liquidity is consolidated above $400 and they assure that there is room for it to continue rising

2023-03-21T11:04:58.512Z


Financial dollars have been climbing, but they are still lagging behind inflation. The cash with liqui or CCL, the way that companies use to get foreign currency out of the country, has five wheels trading above 400 pesos. This Monday ended at $401.6, with a gap of 95% compared to the wholesale dollar, which reached $204.6. After stagnating for several weeks during the summer, cash with liquidity woke up in March, after the Government stopped intervening in this market. In the


The cash with liqui or CCL, the way that companies use to get foreign currency out of the country, has five wheels trading above 400 pesos.

This Monday ended at

$401.6,

with a gap of 95% compared to the wholesale dollar, which reached

$204.6.

After stagnating for several weeks during the summer, cash with liquidity woke up in March,

after the Government stopped intervening in this market.

In the first two months of the year, the economic team sought to step on alternative dollars through the purchase of bonds - the means that allows dollars to be made in this way, avoiding the stocks - to sustain the price of Argentine securities.

To access cash with liquidity or the MEP,

you have to buy Argentine bonds in pesos and sell them at their price in dollars

.

With the government intervening, the price of bonds eased its fall.

But when, at the request of the IMF, which demanded that the reserves not be used for this purpose, the Ministry of Economy withdrew from this operation

, the MEP and the CCL became more expensive.


So far this year, the CCL has advanced 16.7%, one percentage point above the variation in the official exchange rate.

In turn, the MEP dollar, which is traded on the Buenos Aires stock market, closed at

$387.6

, after an 18% rise so far this year.

In the parallel segment, the blue is trading at

$386

, a jump of 11.5% in 2023.

All variants of the dollar have been running behind inflation this year, which

is expected to end the first quarter at 21%.

After the escalation of the last days, the question that runs through the market is

how far the financial dollars could go.

How far will it go


"The equilibrium dollar

could be located between $420 and $440,

at this rate buying the MEP dollar around $390 seems like a good deal. There is room to continue rising, especially since

many investors will exit positions in pesos to start the process of dollarization

", points out the economist Salvador Di Stéfano.

"We have manifest weakness in reserves, a very low crop outlook and very high monetary liabilities in pesos. All this leads us to a combo where it is very difficult for

alternative dollars to stay below the 100.0 gap %

", says Di Stéfano.

For Martín Calveira, from the IAE Business School, "the 'equilibrium' dollar estimated by the IAE-Austral (dollar value according to the average Real Exchange Rate for the period December 2010-February 2023) in the effective formal price of the retail market would be of

$408.6

(including taxes). In effect, the current exchange rate would be 14.2% below that value and would depend on future inflation, that is, a greater exchange rate delay".

From the Capital Foundation they point out that to estimate what the price of financial dollars should be, the relationship between monetary liabilities that already exceed $16.9 trillion and the gross reserves of the Central Bank at US$ 38,331 million is measured.

"This ratio is around $441, above the current values ​​of the parallel exchange rates and with an upward trend."

For the financial group IEB, the theoretical value of the CCL is

$433

.

"Market sentiment in this regard is clear: there are no operators who see the CCL as 'cheap'.

That is to say, market expectations are clearly bullish

."

AQ

look too

Activity slows down: the consumption indicator fell 1.7% in February

Due to the fall in reserves, the rumor of an exchange rate unfolding grows, although the Economy denies it

Source: clarin

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