Blue dollar: why is it rising and when can it reach $400?

The blue dollar gave the note this Tuesday when it rose 8 pesos in one day, to close at

 Thus, it set a new nominal record for the informal bill and brought the gap with respect to the wholesale dollar to 92%.

Why did the blue jump?

There were several reasons that came together for the informal to take this leap.

The escalation of the inflation, the political and economic uncertainty and the effect of the drought on the fiscal numbers are some of the reasons.

By the end of March,

.

With this advance,

.

In the case of the blue, even with the jump this Tuesday, the rise for the year is 14%, at least seven percentage points below inflation.

At the same time, the official dollar rose 15.7% so far this year, while financial dollars, the MEP and cash with liquidity, advanced 17%.

In this way,

with respect to inflation.

It is not something new: in 2022 the informal sector climbed 68% against inflation of 94.8%. 

The story changes if you take the entire period of Alberto Fernández's management so far:

Thus, the perception is that blue is cheap given the rise in prices of the last two years.

This idea is reinforced by the increase in financial dollars in recent days.

Now the cash with liqui is at $400 and the MEP at $386. Typically, the blue is located at

Until last Monday, the blue was cheaper than the MEP, so this anomaly was expected to be corrected in the short term, as it happened on Tuesday.

Although the current price is the highest at a nominal level, in real terms it is far from other jumps - "overshooting" in financial jargon - that occurred during the administration of Martín Guzmán.

In October 2020, the blue reached 195 pesos, which is equivalent to

, according to the calculation of the economist Salvador Vitelli.

The rise in recent days is also driven by the data that shows that the shortage of foreign currency is dramatic.

So far in March,

The persistence of the drought shows that it will be a difficult year for the accumulation of reserves.

This led the Monetary Fund to agree to make the goal for the first quarter of the year more flexible to prevent the Government from defaulting.

At the same time, the effect of the drought is already being felt on exports, which in February sank 19%.

This causes a deficit of

And it also hits tax revenues due to lower income from withholdings.

In February the public account deficit reached

a jump of 200% in one year, which once again complicates the goals with the IMF.

This suggests that the renegotiation of the agreement with the Fund will be more complicated than expected and that

With a scenario of less currencies and more restrictions and the elections ahead, investors are looking to position themselves in a dollar that is still perceived as "cheap".

How far can you go?

Estimates from economists indicate that financial dollars are also behind schedule and

"

at this rate buying the MEP dollar around $390 seems like a good deal. There is room to continue rising, especially since many investors will exit positions in pesos to start the process of dollarization", points out the economist Salvador Di Stéfano.

In this way, the blue should soon climb above 400 pesos and follow the trend of financial dollars.

At current values,

One factor that up to now has contributed to the stability of the blue was the

, which has made it more business so far this year to bet on the peso than on the dollar.

Today a fixed term in pesos yields 6.4% per month.

So far in March, the blue rose only 5%.

In the first two months, the fixed term yielded 13%, against a 6% increase in the blue.

But that gain in pesos that was driving the carry trade - taking advantage of positive rates to make a difference while the dollar is quiet - 

AQ

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