INDEC reported this afternoon that in 2022,
economic activity grew 5.2% compared to the previous year
.
The good news pales when one analyzes in detail what happened in the last part of the year:
in the fourth quarter there was a drop of 1.5% compared to the previous quarter
.
In the last part of last year, only exports had a positive result, with an expansion of 8.7%.
On the other hand, private consumption fell 1.5%;
public consumption dropped 0.3% and gross fixed capital formation lost 7.2%.
The INDEC indicated that the original series of the gross domestic product, in comparison with the same period of the previous year, showed
an increase of 1.9% in the fourth quarter.
In addition to the external sector, in the fourth quarter of last year there was growth in Hotels and restaurants, with an increase of 20% year-on-year, in Private households with domestic service with 13%, and in Mining and quarrying with 11.1 %.
The 5.2% increase in GDP in 2022 responded to the increase in all demand components: private consumption grew 9.4%;
public consumption, 1.8%;
exports, 5.7%;
and gross fixed capital formation increased 10.9% compared to 2021.
With these records,
2022 was the second consecutive year of growth after the 10.4% increase in 2021.
That time activity recovered what had been lost in 2020, due to the isolation decreed by the pandemic, which led to a retraction of the product of 9.9%.
Measured at current prices,
private consumption was the most important component of demand with 63.7% of GDP
, followed by Gross Fixed Capital Formation (17.3% of GDP), Exports (16.8% of GDP), GDP) and Public Consumption (15.6% of GDP).
What's coming in 2023
The drop in activity in the last quarter of 2022 remains at the start of this year.
With the drought in between, the growth forecasts for 2023, which until a few months ago marked an expansion of 1%, are now recalculated towards recessive levels.
The drought, which will subtract more than
US$ 20,000 million
from agricultural production, will have an impact that will lead to a drop of at least 2 points in gross product.
For the Capital Foundation,
the drop in activity will be 2.7%,
in a year that it defines as
"without engines for growth."
For JP Morgan,
economic activity will fall 1.7% in the year
and up to 2% in 2024, "causing the country to suffer again from two consecutive years of recession and up to 13 years of stagflation."
For now, the Government maintains the growth projection estimated in the Budget, which
foresees a 2% increase in gross product for the year.
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