The same day that Congress approved the pension moratorium, the IMF made calls to Buenos Aires asking experts what they believed the fiscal impact would be and if it was possible that it would be vetoed by the President (something that never happened).
Then, the organization asked in Economy if they had been responsible for sending that project (which according to the Congressional Budget Office has a cost of 0.27% of GDP in the first year and 0.48% in the second).
where they immediately looked towards the side of La Cámpora
(they pointed to Anabel Fernández Sagasti and Mariano Recalde).
At the IMF, sources familiar with the negotiation say,
there are "doubts" about the extent to which the minister is telling the truth
and in truth he never opposed La Cámpora.
Now Economy intends to install the idea that it will seek to delay the regulation of the law and thus reduce the impact on the numbers by showing itself in tune with the Fund.
This Friday, in principle, the Executive Board of the organization will discuss the
of Argentina for the review of the goals of the fourth quarter of last year.
Argentina will meet the goals and the disbursement of US$ 5.3 billion will arrive in a few hours.
But the IMF does not only do a retrospective evaluation of the economy under a program and the fulfillment of the goals.
It also establishes criteria for how the economy is going forward and what are the chances that the next objectives will be met (first quarter 2023).
There is the key.
On this front, the outlook looks more complicated and that is why Massa announced a month ago
the easing of the reserve goals
This week we will know more about the subject.
Yesterday the minister said that new guidelines will be established and everything indicates that it will be more than the question of reserves.
In this way, the minister ensures another disbursement prior to the STEP.
Later it will be seen.
In private conversations, the IMF technicians observed other "licences" that Massa took: the repurchase of bonds with reserves (the agency does not tolerate the dollars going private, they are to pay the debt that Argentina has with him), the more lax fiscal policy (the fiscal goal for the first quarter was already committed in only January-February), the social security moratorium, the debt exchange of bonds in dollars for the ANSeS and that on March 17 the Government resorted to the Temporary Advances of the BCRA for $130,000 million for the first time since Massa is a minister.
Lastly, and not a minor issue, is what happens with the rates.
Massa promised the IMF - and he told journalists this - that he would increase the wholesale price of gas and electricity,
something that did not happen
and as inflation accelerated, he demanded greater spending on subsidies to cover the hole.
It will then be necessary to resort to the imagination to see how to explain to directors from countries with little weight on the Board but who are always critical, like the Netherlands, why in Europe they pay rates for what they are worth and not in Argentina.
Here the argument is that many poor people did not register on the RASE form.
Will the IMF understand?