While the Government tries to advance with the exchange of the debt in dollars with the ANSeS and other public organizations,
the wall of the debt of pesos continues to be a threat to the economy.
Three weeks ago, Sergio Massa's team carried out a debt swap in pesos with the aim of clearing the maturities that are coming up.
Specifically
, $4.3 trillion of the nominal $7.5 trillion maturing until June
of this year was exchanged for two baskets of new titles, indexed for inflation or an increase in the official exchange rate.
The consulting firm Analytica details that 51.7% of the maturities were exchanged: 18.6% of those in March, 55.4% in April, 50.7% in May and 57.7% in June.
"The mountain of debt maturities in pesos that the Treasury faced until June 2023 will be less steep than anticipated. The Ministry of Economy reached an exchange for 51.7% of the titles that matured between next March and June,
in a result that we consider bittersweet
. Although the adhesion is low over the total, the term of the new titles (2024 and 2025) and the fact that it is an electoral year, help to qualify this result, "they pointed out.
For Analytica, "despite the swap, the excess pesos will continue to put pressure" on inflation and the exchange rate gap.
Going forward, this wall of weights could continue to grow.
According to Analytica, a new version of the soybean dollar could achieve the liquidation of some
US$3.3 billion
, the measure would imply an injection of
$0.3 trillion (0.2% of GDP)
.
To this are added some
10.6 trillion
“non-transactional pesos”, where bank deposits are counted.
plus the pesos that did not enter the exchange.
"This gives a potential excess of weights in the market equivalent to
12.3 points of the product that could potentially seek escape routes in a more volatile context."
The scenario becomes more complex if one takes into account that
"the price of the dollar counted with liqui is 12% below its theoretical value
, a gap that gives room to close in the face of a currency run."
"The management of these surplus pesos will be crucial in the coming months, hit by the shortage of foreign currency and an inflation rate that will not let up," they slipped.
Days ago, the Treasury had to further raise the rates of the debt tender to attract interested parties.
Ecolatina specifies that in the first debt tender in March,
the Treasury achieved a rollover of 116%
(including the second round), when it had achieved 148% in January and 131% in February.
"Although it was possible to place instruments after the elections, these were fully indexed (Duals and DLK). In this sense, the Treasury managed to stretch the duration, but at the cost of validating a new increase in rates," they specified.
If the level of adherence continues to fall, the complications fall on the economy.
For Ecolatina,
a drop in the rollover rate would imply a strong issuance by the Central Bank to redeem debt
that would put pressure on inflation and the exchange market, "accelerating the chances of an abrupt exchange rate correction."
In this sense, "the gap will continue to be indicative of the demand for pesos, the propensity to dollarize and the appetite for debt."
Last week, one more element of extreme pressure on the wall of weights.
After eight months, the Temporary Advances from the Central Bank to the Treasury returned, this time in an operation for
$130,000 million
.
According to the agreement with the IMF, the goal of direct monetary assistance for the first quarter amounts to $139,000 million, for which the economic team has a margin of only $9,000 million in the remainder of the month.
For analysts, the return of the Temporary Advances, to which Massa resorted for the first time in his tenure as minister, is an indication that the fiscal deficit, which already jumped in February, will also show poor results in March, which which raises the chances of asking the IMF for a review of this target.
