The historic drought suffered by Argentina, and which has already begun to
have
an impact on economic activity, forced the Minister of Economy to accept the inevitable.
A devaluation of the peso to compensate, even partially, for the loss of
20,000 million dollars
as a result of the lack of water and the dramatic drop in agricultural yields.
Of those US$ 20,000 million,
a third had to go to the reserves of the Central Bank
.
The economy resigned itself, perhaps pushed by the IMF staff, to apply
a manual measure:
increase the price of what is scarce.
And those that are scarce are dollars.
Massa will have to raise the barriers and accept
a much broader devaluation,
although not yet widespread.
If until now the carrot benefited soybean
exporters and a
“malbec” dollar
was suggested
, due to the reserve crisis the fortified exchange rate will reach the rest of the farm products this time.
The list is not yet known, nor is the price.
But it won't be far from $300.
Logic would indicate that importers should also pay a higher exchange rate than they pay today -$208-.
Something already began to be seen on Wednesday, with an AFIP regulation that removes tax benefits from importers.
But it would not be logical -although you never know- for the Central to pay $300 to exporters, the dollars that it will then sell 50% cheaper to importers.
Of course, the problem is
the impact on inflation
of a measure of these characteristics.
The officials themselves do not tire of saying -José Ignacio de Mendiguren, the first- that the last thing Argentina needs is a devaluation that triggers prices even more.
This exchange move could be written down in something already known: "the devaluation without a plan."
The plan would be everything else that is needed, and that it is impossible, at this point, to claim from this Government.
The electoral result will be the one that allows us to know what that plan is.
For now, Massa would be resigning himself to doing the dirty work
.
Or a part.
look too
Another attempt by Sergio Massa to strengthen the reserves: he launches a new "agro dollar"
The AFIP eliminated a benefit that exempted importers from an advance of VAT and Earnings
